🌊 RIVER/USDT Technical Judgment: Consolidation or Capitulation?
After a legendary 2025 run, $RIVER is currently testing the resolve of both bulls and bears. The vertical climb to $80 was met with an equally aggressive sell-off, bringing us back to a critical "make or break" zone.
1. The Chart Structure: The Relief Bounce?
Current Price: ~$15.91.
Trend: Firmly Bearish in the short-to-mid term. The price has retraced over 75% from its January highs.
Key Support: The $13.00 – $15.00 horizontal zone is currently acting as a floor. If this breaks, the next major historical support sits much lower near $10.00.
Key Resistance: Immediate heavy supply is sitting at $25.00 and $32.00. We need a daily close above $33.00 to even consider a trend reversal.
2. Why the Sudden Drop? 🚩
Token Unlocks: Over 28% of the circulating supply was scheduled for unlock in early February, creating massive selling pressure from early investors.
Derivatives Imbalance: Futures volume recently exceeded spot volume by 80x, a classic warning sign of an over-leveraged market ripe for a "long squeeze".
Concentrated Supply: On-chain data shows over 94% of the supply is held by just five wallets, making the price highly sensitive to "whale" movements.
3. The Bull Case (The "Hope" Trade) 📈
Oversold Signals: The RSI on the 4H chart is approaching deep oversold territory, suggesting a technical relief rally (dead cat bounce) could be coming soon.
Strong Backing: Despite the price drop, the project recently secured strategic investments from Justin Sun and the Maelstrom Fund.
