china

​Date: January 23, 2026
Topic: Commodities / Geopolitics
​In early 2026, the precious metals market stands at a precarious tipping point. With gold hovering near $4,700 per ounce and silver shattering records above $90, investors are caught between euphoria and dread. While current trends are historically bullish, fears of an imminent "crash" are growing. This volatility is not merely a market cycle; it is the direct fallout of an escalating economic conflict between the United States and China, where gold and silver have transformed from passive assets into geopolitical weapons.
​The "Crash" Narrative: Liquidity and Margins
​Why are traders whispering about a crash when prices are at all-time highs? The answer lies in market mechanics. The recent parabolic rise in silver—up over 35% in just the first few weeks of 2026—has triggered "overbought" signals.
​When asset prices rise too fast, exchanges (like the CME Group) often hike margin requirements to curb speculation. This forces leveraged traders to cough up more cash instantly. Those who cannot pay are forced to sell, triggering a cascade of liquidations. We saw a glimpse of this in late 2025, and fears are mounting that a similar "liquidity flush" could drop silver prices by 20-30% in a matter of days. This isn't a loss of value; it is a forced sell-off.
​The Catalyst: The US-China Resource War
​The primary driver of this volatility is the weaponization of trade. Effective January 1, 2026, China implemented strict export licensing on refined silver and other critical minerals. As the world’s largest refiner, Beijing’s move effectively throttles global supply, creating a structural deficit.
​China's Strategy: By restricting exports, China is squeezing Western industries (particularly Solar and EV manufacturers) that rely heavily on silver. Simultaneously, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to hoard gold to de-dollarize its reserves, creating a "floor" for gold prices.
​The U.S. Response: The U.S. has retaliated with aggressive tariffs and moves to secure supply chains outside of Chinese influence (e.g., the recent geopolitical maneuvering regarding Greenland). This tit-for-tat escalation creates uncertainty, driving safe-haven demand for gold while physically constraining the supply of silver.
​Structural Deficits vs. Speculative Bubbles
​Investors must distinguish between a price correction and a structural crash. A crash implies a fundamental loss of demand. However, the data suggests the opposite.
​Silver: The industrial demand for silver in 2026 is projected to outstrip mining supply by hundreds of millions of ounces. Even if speculators sell, industrial buyers must buy.
​Gold: With interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve in 2026 to manage U.S. debt, the dollar is facing headwinds. Historically, a weaker dollar acts as rocket fuel for gold.
​Outlook: Turbulence Ahead
​The warning signs of a "crash" are real, but they likely point to short-term volatility rather than a long-term bear market. We may see violent pullbacks—potentially dropping gold to $4,200 or silver to $70—driven by profit-taking and margin calls. However, as long as the US-China economic conflict centers on critical resources, the long-term trajectory for these metals remains upward.
​Bottom Line: The market is currently a battleground. For the short-term speculator, the risk of a crash is high. For the long-term strategic investor, these dips may represent the last opportunities to acquire assets that are central to the economic war of the 21st century.
​Next Step
​Would you like me to create a comparison table showing the "Support" and "Resistance" price levels for Gold and Silver based on the latest technical analysis to help you spot potential entry or exit points?
#Gold #silver #china #U.S #WEFDavos2026

Während die meisten globalen Aktienmärkte am Mittwoch schwächer wurden, bewegten sich chinesische Aktien in die entgegengesetzte Richtung. Die Investoren konzentrierten sich auf den zunehmenden Druck der Regierung zur technologischen Selbstversorgung und die Beschleunigung der Entwicklung von künstlicher Intelligenz im Inland, während die globalen Märkte weiterhin von Unsicherheit und geopolitischen Spannungen ergriffen sind.
Die Stärke war im Technologiesektor am deutlichsten. Der STAR 50 Index, der oft mit dem Nasdaq verglichen wird, stieg um bis zu 4,3 %, was den stärksten wöchentlichen Gewinn markiert. Der breitere CSI 300 Index, der wichtige chinesische Aktien aus dem Festland verfolgt, lag bis zum Nachmittag bei etwa 0,5 %.

Die PBOC hat gerade neue Makrodaten veröffentlicht und sie sind schlecht.
Echt schlecht - und wird schlimmer.

An diesem Punkt sehen wir den größten Marktabsturz in der modernen Geschichte.

Schlimmer als COVID.
Schlimmer als 2008.

Hier ist der Teil, den dir niemand sagt:

Ihr M2-Geldangebot ist absolut vertikal gegangen - jetzt über 48 BILLIONEN USD (entsprechend).

Lass das einen Moment sacken.

Das ist mehr als das Doppelte des gesamten Geldangebots der USA.

Und hier ist der Schlüsselteil, den die Leute übersehen:
Wenn China so druckt, bleibt das Geld nicht einfach in Aktien.

Chinas Zoll hat Berichten zufolge die Einfuhr von Nvidias H200 KI-Chips trotz der Genehmigung durch die USA blockiert, was zu Produktionsstopps bei den Lieferanten führte. Dies überraschte Nvidia, das mit großen Bestellungen rechnete. Die Absicht hinter diesem Schritt ist unklar, aber sie befeuert die technologischen Spannungen zwischen den USA und China und die Bedenken über Chinas Fortschritte in der KI.
#china
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