The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions.
What to know:
U.S. institutional investors are maintaining their leveraged positions in bitcoin while offshore traders are reducing exposure, NYDIG found.
The difference in futures basis between CME and Deribit reflects varying risk appetite across regions.
Bitcoin’s price movement aligns with quantum computing stocks, suggesting a broader market trend rather than a specific quantum risk factor.
A divergence in global bitcoin market sentiment is widening as U.S. institutional investors hold steady while offshore traders retreat from their positions.
The gap is clearest in futures markets. CME, the go-to platform for hedge funds and institutional desks in the U.S., shows traders are still paying a premium to stay long on bitcoin, according to NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro.
This is evident on a one-month annualized basis, essentially the markup for futures over spot prices, which remains higher than on its offshore counterpart, Deribit.
“The more pronounced drop in offshore basis suggests reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure,” Cipolaro wrote. “The widening spread between CME and Deribit basis functions as a real-time gauge of geographical risk appetite.”
Bitcoin earlier this month fell to $60,000 before rebounding. Some pinned the selloff on rising concerns that quantum computing will undermine the system's cryptographic security. NYDIG found that the numbers don’t back up that explanation.
For one, bitcoin’s performance has closely tracked that of publicly traded quantum-computing companies like IONQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS). If quantum risk were truly weighing on crypto, those stocks would be rising while bitcoin falls.
Instead, they dropped together, pointing to a broader decline in appetite for long-term, future-driven assets. On top of that, search data on Google Trends shows interest for “quantum computing bitcoin” rises when the price of BTC rises.
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