I’ve learned the hard way that price alone lies. A green candle doesn’t mean strength. Sometimes it just means someone bigger needed liquidity.
Right now the market looks like it’s rebounding. Bitcoin pushes up, alts follow, timelines turn optimistic again. But when I look under the surface, I don’t just watch price, i watch liquidity. Is spot volume rising, or is this move driven mostly by leverage? If open interest climbs faster than spot buying, that tells me traders are piling into contracts, not accumulating real assets. That’s fragile fuel. It burns fast.
Funding rates also matter. When they flip aggressively positive during a small recovery, it usually means traders are overcrowded on the long side. That’s not organic demand. That’s positioning. And positioning can unwind violently.
Then there’s stablecoin flow. If capital is actually entering exchanges in size, rebounds tend to hold. If not, we’re just rotating existing liquidity, which often turns into exit liquidity.
Understanding this changes how I trade. In uncertain rebounds, I scale into spot slowly and reduce leverage. I let confirmation build instead of chasing the first 10%. Missing early upside is cheaper than being trapped in a fake breakout.
So here’s the real question: are we seeing new money step in, or just short-term traders fighting for volatility?
Drop your view below about rebound or bull trap? Let’s read the liquidity, not just the candles.
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