Seeing the news that a major institution increased its ETH holdings by 1 billion USD, the only thought that flashes through my mind is: retail investors are about to give away their money again.
Over the past three months, I’ve discovered a particularly painful pattern—whenever this institution makes a high-profile statement, the trend of ETH should be questioned, even looked down upon. But this time? Still, a bunch of people hear the word "increase" and immediately chase up at the $2,940 level.
Why am I not that excited? I looked at on-chain data and understood: this institution started accumulating ETH when it was still at $3,400 in early November. Up to now, they’ve bought a total of 580,000 ETH, investing 1.72 billion USD, with an average cost of around $3,208. Now, at $2,940, they’re sitting on an unrealized loss of 141 million USD. Even more brutal, they’ve added leverage—borrowing 8.87 billion USDT from a lending protocol, nearly double the leverage ratio.
Many people see this data and go all-in, but it’s important to clarify one thing: institutional accumulation is not a bottom signal at all.
What’s the difference? Institutions can absorb paper losses; retail investors cannot. They manage over 10 billion USD, and this 1.7 billion USD ETH position only accounts for 17%. Even if ETH drops another 50%, their overall account would only lose 8.5%. But retail investors? Fully leveraged positions or even margin trading, a 20% drop in ETH could wipe out their entire account.
And here’s an even more painful point: institutions play the waiting game, retail investors play the fast-food game.
They build positions gradually over two months, while retail investors see a tweet and go all-in that night. The next day, when ETH drops to $2,800, they start panicking. Institutions are calculating cycles; retail investors are waiting for tomorrow’s rise—that’s the fundamental difference.
I have to say something less pleasant: sometimes, institutional accumulation is just marketing.
History’s big crashes and project collapses in crypto have already taught us that what you think is a bottom might just be their liquidity needs.
In plain words: the positive news you see might just be a signal for them to get you in.
Ask yourself three more realistic questions: Is this money really idle? Can you calmly watch it drop another 30%? Do you have the patience to wait 3 to 6 months? If the answer is no, don’t move.
If you really want to participate, don’t just copy institutional conclusions—learn from their tactics. For example, if you have 100,000 RMB to buy $ETH, don’t buy it all at once. Buy 30% at the current price, and if it drops another 10%, buy another 30%. Keep the remaining 40% for the final push.
And always have a bottom line: if you bought at $2,940, sell if it drops to $2,500. It’s okay to be wrong; preserving your capital is the real skill. Wait for the real bottom.
Remember this final sentence: institutional accumulation is just their show, not your reference. Your task isn’t to participate in this play but to survive and see the next round.
