🔴 Scenario 1: SHORT (Primary Bias)
Rationale
HTF bearish structure
Weak pullbacks
Volume + OI + Funding all align with downside continuation
Invalidation
Strong acceptance and close above 1.56
Entry Zone: 1.529 – 1.561
Execution:
Limit sell at supply
Or market entry after bearish rejection / 15m displacement
Stop Loss: 1.567
Targets
TP1: 1.503
TP2: 1.473
TP3: 1.433 (HTF demand)
1. Market Structure (SMC)
The higher-timeframe structure on 1H remains bearish.
After a prior bullish CHoCH, price failed to hold bullish BOS and was strongly rejected from the upper supply.
Recent price action shows:
Lower High formation
A confirmed bearish BOS near the 1.50 area
The current consolidation is a bearish pullback, not a trend reversal.
SMC Bias:
➡️ Bearish continuation after distribution.
2. Key Price Zones
Supply / Resistance Zones
1.53 – 1.56
Clear 1H supply
Confluence with EQH
~1.58 – 1.61 (Weak High)
Only relevant if a short squeeze occurs (no signal yet)
Mid-Range / Value Area
~1.50 – 1.53
POC + high interaction zone
Acts as short-term balance, but below HTF value
Demand / Support Zones
1.50 – 1.47
PDL, weak low, vulnerable to liquidity sweep
1.45 – 1.43
Strong HTF demand
Higher probability reaction zone
3. Volume & Volume Profile
Volume Behavior
Sell-offs are accompanied by increasing volume.
Pullbacks and bounces show declining volume, indicating weak demand.
No bullish displacement candles with strong volume confirmation.
Volume Profile
POC located around 1.52 – 1.53
Price is currently accepted below POC, which is bearish.
Below POC:
Thin volume → higher probability of fast downside expansion
Above 1.55:
Low-volume area → suitable for sell premium, not accumulation
➡️ Volume confirms distribution, not accumulation.
4. Open Interest & Funding Rate
Open Interest (OI)
OI has been steadily decreasing.
During recent pullbacks: No meaningful OI expansion
➡️ Indicates:
No strong new longs entering
Mostly short covering + lack of real demand
Funding Rate
Funding remains slightly positive (~0.01%)
Longs are still paying shorts
Market is not short-crowded
➡️ No short squeeze conditions present.
5. Trade Scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1: SHORT (Primary Bias)
Rationale
HTF bearish structure
Weak pullbacks
Volume + OI + Funding all align with downside continuation
Invalidation
Strong acceptance and close above 1.56
Entry Zone: 1.529 – 1.561
Execution:
Limit sell at supply
Or market entry after bearish rejection / 15m displacement
Stop Loss: 1.567
Targets
TP1: 1.503
TP2: 1.473
TP3: 1.433 (HTF demand)
🟡 Scenario 2: No Trade / Wait
If price ranges tightly around 1.51 – 1.52
Low volume, declining OI
➡️ High probability of traps on both sides
❌ Scenario 3: LONG (Low Probability)
Only consider longs if:
Price breaks and holds above 1.61
Followed by:
Strong bullish displacement
Rising OI
Funding cooling toward neutral or negative
➡️ Currently no confirmation for this scenario.
Final Takeaway
NEARUSDT remains in a bearish continuation phase.
The current price action is corrective and distributive, not accumulation.
Bias stays short-on-rallies until market structure and derivatives data change.
#trading #TradingSignal #futures
✍️ Written by @CryptoTradeSmart
Crypto Insights | Trading Perspectives
⚠️ DISCLAIMER:
NOT financial advice. Perpetuals trading is high risk - you can lose your entire capital. This is my personal setup for educational purposes only. Always DYOR, use strict risk management, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. You are solely responsible for your decisions.
Trade safe! 🎯