Tomorrow, the U.S. Supreme Court rules on Trump-era tariffs â and markets are severely underestimating the downside risk.
Current probabilities suggest a ~76% chance the tariffs are ruled illegal.
Some are calling this bullish. That view is dangerously shallow.
Hereâs what the market isnât pricing in:
Trump has publicly stated that refund liabilities could reach hundreds of billions
When investment damage claims are included, exposure escalates into trillions
A negative ruling instantly blows a massive hole in U.S. Treasury revenue
This isnât a policy tweak â itâs a fiscal shock event.
Immediate consequences could include:
⢠Forced tariff refunds and legal disputes
⢠Emergency debt issuance to cover revenue gaps
⢠Heightened geopolitical and retaliation risk
⢠Abrupt liquidity withdrawal across all risk assets
When that hits, everything becomes exit liquidity:
Bonds. Equities. Crypto. No sector is immune.
Markets are calm â but calm before a macro repricing is often the most dangerous phase.
Risk management matters more than conviction here.
Watch closely:
