The XRP/USDT pair is currently trading around $2.06, showing mild weakness after a recent bullish attempt that peaked near $2.19. A close look at the 4-hour chart reveals that XRP is at a decisive short-term zone, where trend direction will be determined by buyers’ ability to defend key supports.
1. Price Action and Trend Structure
XRP recently experienced a strong upward move from the $2.03–$2.04 region, which pushed price sharply higher toward $2.19. However, this rally lacked sustained follow-through. After forming a local top, price entered a corrective phase, characterized by lower highs and intermittent bearish candles.
Currently, XRP is hovering just above $2.05, a psychologically and technically important level. This zone has previously acted as both support and consolidation, making it critical for short-term traders.
2. Moving Averages (EMA Analysis)
The exponential moving averages provide a clear picture of short-term pressure:
EMA (7) ≈ 2.087
EMA (25) ≈ 2.102
EMA (99) ≈ 2.074
Price is trading below EMA-7 and EMA-25, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The EMA-99, however, lies very close to the current price and is acting as dynamic support. A sustained breakdown below EMA-99 would expose XRP to deeper correction, while a bounce from this level could attract dip buyers.
3. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The RSI (6) is around 34, which places XRP near the oversold zone on the 4-hour timeframe. This suggests that selling pressure may be losing strength, and a technical bounce is possible. However, oversold conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal; confirmation through volume and price structure is essential.
4. Volume Profile
Trading volume has declined compared to the volume seen during the bullish impulse. This reduction in volume during the pullback indicates that sellers are not aggressively dominant, which keeps the possibility of a consolidation or relief bounce alive.
5. MACD Momentum
The MACD histogram is slightly negative, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms bearish momentum, but the histogram bars are relatively shallow, signaling that downside momentum is weak rather than impulsive. A bullish crossover could occur if price stabilizes above current levels.
6. Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support:
$2.05 – $2.03 (critical demand zone)
Below this, next support lies near $2.00 – $1.98
Immediate Resistance:
$2.10 – $2.13
Strong resistance near $2.18 – $2.20
A clean break and close above $2.13 could revive bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $2.03 would likely accelerate selling pressure.
7. Outlook and Strategy Perspective
Bullish Scenario: Holding above $2.03 with improving volume may trigger a rebound toward $2.10–$2.15.
Bearish Scenario: Failure to defend $2.03 could push XRP toward $2.00 or lower in the short term.
Risk-Aware View: This is a decision zone, not an ideal area for aggressive entries without confirmation.
Conclusion
XRP is currently in a cool-off phase after a sharp rally, sitting near a crucial support backed by the EMA-99 and oversold RSI conditions. While bearish pressure exists, it is not aggressive, suggesting that the market is waiting for direction. Traders should watch $2.03 support and $2.13 resistance closely, as a break on either side will likely define the next meaningful move.
In volatile crypto markets, protecting capital is as important as chasing gains—confirmation is key.
