Markets are facing another tariff-driven volatility cycle. Trump has announced new tariffs on the EU while tying any rollback to a Greenland deal, restarting a familiar pattern that traders have seen multiple times before.

A new 10% tariff is set to begin on February 1, with a planned increase to 25% on June 1 if no agreement is reached.

The targets include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. Trump has stated the tariffs stay until a full deal on Greenland is reached.

This fits the same structure that has defined Trump’s trade strategy in previous episodes.

How the tariff cycle usually unfolds

🟡 Initial threat or cryptic message, often late Friday
🟡 Formal tariff announcement shortly after, usually aggressive in size
🟡 Repeated pressure over the weekend while markets are closed
🟡 Futures sell off when markets reopen on Sunday night
🟡 Early week volatility as headlines dominate
🟡 Dip buying appears midweek as traders realize tariffs are not yet live
🟡 Talks and “progress” headlines surface the following weekend
🟡 Futures rally on optimism, often fading after the cash open
🟡 A deal is announced before tariffs actually take effect

Tariffs are used as leverage, not as an end goal.

The timing matters.
Announcements tend to come when markets are closed, with a 2–3 week window before implementation to force negotiations. In past cases, deals were announced on the exact day tariffs were supposed to go live.

This time the Greenland demand is more complex than past disputes, which could stretch the timeline. Still, the sequence remains familiar.

Markets tend to struggle most during the headline phase, then stabilize once process replaces emotion.

Volatility is not the outcome. It is the mechanism.