$BTC I want to share how I’m personally looking at the $40K area (give or take $5K) as a potential bottom during this bear phase.
This isn’t a strong call or a bold prediction — just a scenario based on on-chain behavior that I think is worth paying attention to.
One metric I consistently track for long-term market turns is Realized Price. Simply put, it represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pretty clear pattern during bear markets:
price usually dips below Realized Price before forming a real bottom.
Looking at past cycles:
In 2011, BTC traded about 66% below Realized Price
In 2015, around 48% below
In 2018, roughly 35% below
In 2022, close to 33% below
What stands out is that the downside deviation has been shrinking with every cycle. Volatility keeps compressing over time.
That brings up the obvious question:
does Bitcoin repeat this pattern again in 2026?
Right now, Realized Price is sitting near $56K, and during downtrends it usually drifts lower rather than staying flat.
If we mirror the 2022 setup (around 33% below Realized Price), a theoretical bottom would land near $37K–$38K.
If Realized Price itself drops toward $53K–$54K, the downside could extend closer to $35K.
That said, Bitcoin simply doesn’t move as wildly as it used to. With volatility compressing each cycle, I’m leaning toward a shallower drawdown this time — something closer to 24%–31% below Realized Price.
That lines up well with a $40K–$43K zone.
🎯 How I’m approaching this
Instead of trying to call an exact bottom, I’m watching $35K–$45K as a reaction zone.
If price reaches that area, what matters most is how the market behaves — not the exact number.
No certainty.
No predictions.
Just probabilities — and patience.
