I was staring at the 4-hour chart this morning and something just didn't feel right about the "everything is over" narrative. While most of the feed is filled with "Anything But Crypto" (ABC) sentiment right now, I decided to look right when everyone else was looking left. What I found underneath the noise is a pattern we’ve seen only a few times in this entire cycle—and it usually ends with a massive green candle.
We just entered a classic bullish reversal zone. The 4H RSI (Relative Strength Index) has officially dipped into oversold territory, hitting its lowest reading since late November 2025. For those who don't spend their lives staring at oscillators, RSI measures the speed and change of price movements. When it drops below 30, it’s basically the market’s way of saying "we’ve oversold this thing to the point of exhaustion".
Historically, this specific setup on the 4H timeframe has been a sniper-accurate signal. We saw it on November 21st—price grew. We saw it again on December 1st—price grew. Since then? Nothing. Until now. This isn't just a random dip; it’s a structural reset that often precedes a strong recovery.
What’s even more interesting is the texture of the volume. Usually, a price drop like this is accompanied by rising selling volume as people panic. But look closer at the data from the last 48 hours: we produced a lower low in price, yet the volume was actually lower than the sell-off we saw on January 15th. This is what we call a "bullish divergence" in momentum. The bears are getting tired, and the selling pressure is finally starting to thin out.
Underneath the surface, there's a massive wealth transfer happening. While retail sentiment is at a "neutral-to-cautious" low, the big players—the whales—have accumulated over $3.2 billion worth of $BTC in just the last nine days. They’re buying while others are crying about tariff headlines and geopolitical "noise". This foundation of smart money accumulation is what creates the floor for the next leg up.
Meanwhile, we’re currently on our 6th consecutive red day. If you look back at historical data, six red days in a row is an extreme rarity—we haven't seen this since May 2023. Every single time we’ve hit this kind of "red streak" fatigue, the ensuing day has turned bullish. If this pattern holds, the "relief rally" isn't just a dream; it’s the most likely path forward.
That momentum creates another effect: the "Short Squeeze." With over $180 million in liquidations recently—the bulk of which were shorts being wiped out—the market is primed for a snapback once we reclaim the $91,200 level. Reclaiming that cost basis would signal that the bulls have regained control of the immediate market structure.
It remains to be seen if we can slice through the $98,000 resistance on the first try, but the early signs suggest the bottom is being carved out right here, likely between $89,500 and $91,000. This isn't the time to panic; it’s the time to watch the levels and realize that when everyone is too afraid to buy, the RSI is usually telling you exactly what to do.
Smart money is building a foundation while the crowd is distracted by the exit sign. This retrace isn't an ending; it’s a reload.
What’s your move? Are you buying this RSI reset or waiting for $100k confirmation? Let’s talk below! 👇
$BTC #MarketRebound #BTC100kNext? #BitcoinAnalysis #RSI #WhaleAccumulation
