Everyone’s getting excited over a small green candle… but zoom out. BTC is not done going lower yet. This bounce looks attractive, but the volume tells a different story.

88K held, a quick pop came in, and suddenly FOMO kicks in. That’s exactly where most retail traders get trapped. Smart money doesn’t buy emotions — they buy liquidity.

I’m looking at the 15-min structure, and the message is simple:

This is a reaction, not a reversal.

🔍 What the chart is really saying (SMC view)

• Structure still bearish

Lower highs are intact. No real break of structure yet.

Key line in the sand: 89,644

Until BTC breaks and holds above this level with strong volume, upside moves are just pullbacks.

• FVG zone acting as a trap

The move up into 88,900 – 89,500 looks like a Fair Value Gap refill.

This zone is not for retail to “escape losses” — it’s where institutions reload shorts.

Weak pushes + long wicks here = danger.

• Volume exposes the truth

Sell-off: heavy red volume → real money exiting

Bounce: light green volume → mostly retail buying

When volume doesn’t follow price, price usually follows the trend.

📌 Possible outcomes

🟢 Low-probability bullish case

Clean break + acceptance above 89,644, then pullback holds → possible long setup

🔴 High-probability bearish case

Rejection in FVG → loss of 88,230 → next magnet around 86,000

🧠 My approach

No rushing. No chasing.

Buying here offers poor risk-reward.

If you’re not experienced, spot entries only on confirmed strength — otherwise, patience wins.

Market context matters too:

$BTC hovering near key support

$ETH still under pressure

$BCH showing relative strength but not immune

Trade smart, not fast. Liquidity always comes before direction.

#BTC #ETH #BCH #SmartMoney #SMC #CryptoMarket #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CPIWatch