98% will miss this and lose everything.
No rage bait, no clickbait listen.
Trump has just announced new TARIFFS at the World Economic Forum.
At the same time, the US Supreme Court is voting on a full cancellation of those tariffs.
If youâre holding crypto, stocks, or any risk assets listen closely:
Tariffs stay = DUMP
Tariffs removed = DUMP
THERE IS NO BULL CASE HERE.
And most people still donât understand this.
Before we even get to tariffs, look at where the market already is.
â The Buffett Indicator (Total Market Cap to GDP) just touched ~224%.
Thatâs the highest level EVER.
Well above the Dot-Com peak (~150%) and higher than the 2021 top.
â The Shiller P/E is sitting near 40.
This has only happened ONCE in the last 150 years, right before the market collapse in 2000.
This market is priced for perfection.
It canât survive a hiccup - let alone a trade shock.
Now hereâs where it gets dangerousâŚ
1⣠TODAY: TRUMP AT DAVOS
Trump is speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Global leaders, CEOs, and markets are listening for one thing: trade policy direction.
Any hint of escalation or defiance will be taken as a green light for volatility.
And the risks are already stacked.
2⣠THE âGREENLANDâ ESCALATION
10% tariffs on European allies (France, Germany, UK, etc.) set to begin Feb 1.
These directly hit multinationals trading at ~22x earnings.
There is ZERO margin for error.
3⣠THE CONSTITUTIONAL FLASHPOINT
Whispers are growing that the Supreme Court may rule Trumpâs IEEPA tariffs ILLEGAL.
Anyone whoâs been around long enough knows what that means:
THERE IS NO POSITIVE OUTCOME.
Letâs walk through it.
SCENARIO A: TARIFFS STAND (INFLATION + MARGIN SHOCK)
â Corporate margins get crushed.
Companies canât push 10â20% cost increases onto already exhausted consumers.
They absorb it.
â History reminder: In 2002, Bushâs steel tariffs wiped out 200,000 jobs in steel-using industries - more than the entire steel workforce.
Markets dumped.
â In 2018, mere tariff threats triggered instant sell-offs (CAC 40 down 1.7% in a single day, Apple off 2.6%).
Bottom line: 2026 earnings expectations are about 15% too optimistic.
SCENARIO B: TARIFFS VOIDED (LEGAL + SOLVENCY SHOCK)
â The Refund Bomb: If tariffs are ruled illegal, the U.S. government potentially owes billions back to importers.
â The Smoot-Hawley Echo: In 1930, markets fell 16% before the bill was even signed - purely on anticipation.
â If courts rule against Trump, the administration wonât just accept it.
Expect Section 232, executive orders, or emergency powers to block refunds.
Markets fear legal chaos and fiscal instability more than they fear taxes.
So pick your poison:
A margin-destroying trade war
OR
A constitutional crisis with insolvency risk
This isnât a surprise.
This is a known unknown.
I know newer investors donât want to hear this, but after 20+ years in markets, one truth stands out:
Retail prays for the rally to never end.
Professionals wait patiently for the floor to give way.
Wealth isnât built at euphoric highs - itâs built when fear takes over.
Iâve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October $BTC $ATH .
Follow and turn notifications on. Iâll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

