$XPL
The current technical landscape for XPL/USDT on the 4-hour chart suggests a period of high risk and caution for retail traders. As of late January 2026, the asset is locked in a persistent bearish channel, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. A critical observation is the price action remaining consistently below the MA(25) (Moving Average), which is currently acting as a dynamic ceiling, preventing any meaningful breakout.
Key Technical Indicators
Resistance: The $0.1280 - $0.1300 zone remains a heavy supply area. Until the price can close a 4-hour candle above the MA(25), the path of least resistance remains downward.
Support: Immediate support is found at the recent wick low of $0.1138. If this level fails to hold, the asset could enter a price discovery phase toward psychological support at $0.10.
Volume: While there were spikes in volume during the initial drop, the current consolidation lacks the "buying climax" volume necessary to signal a bottom.
Fundamental Headwinds
Beyond the technicals, a major fundamental event is looming. On January 25, 2026, a significant token unlock of 88.89M XPL is scheduled. In the crypto markets, large unlocks often lead to increased sell pressure as early investors or team members gain liquidity.
Trading Strategy
For disciplined traders, the current recommendation is to stay sidelined. Entering a "long" position here is akin to catching a falling knife. A safer entry would only be considered if:
The $0.12 support level is successfully retested and held with high buying volume.
The price breaks and consolidates above the purple MA(25) line.
Summary: Given the impending supply shock from the token unlock and the bearish technical structure, "Wait and See" is the most capital-efficient strategy. #Plasma @Plasma
