$XRP is once again at a critical technical zone. A long-term chart shared by well-known crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto highlights a recurring pattern that has defined XRP’s major market cycles for nearly a decade.
The analysis focuses on the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA)—a level that has historically acted as a trend divider for XRP. Whenever price loses this moving average, the broader market structure tends to shift bearish.
According to the analyst, when XRP trades below the 50-week SMA, the long-term trend weakens and the moving average turns into strong resistance.
XRP Cycles and the 50-Week SMA
A look at XRP’s past cycles reveals a strikingly consistent pattern:
2015: After breaking below the 50-week SMA, XRP dropped nearly 75% before finding a bottom
2018: The same structure played out with a deeper decline of around 86%
2022: XRP once again lost the SMA and fell approximately 69%
Each cycle followed the same sequence: loss of the 50-week SMA, failed reclaim, and an extended bearish phase. This makes the moving average a key reference point for long-term trend analysis.
Recent Price Action
Over the weekend, XRP declined from above $2.00 to a low near $1.84, signaling renewed selling pressure. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.89.
Following its early-January recovery, price moved back toward the 50-week SMA but failed to reclaim it, closely mirroring the behavior seen in previous bearish cycles. On historical charts, every rejection at this level has resulted in further downside.
Where Could XRP Go Next?
Based on historical data, XRP is now at a decisive point. Previous breakdowns below the 50-week SMA led to declines ranging between 68% and 85%.
If a similar move unfolds:
A 68% drop would place XRP near $0.59, a major historical support zone
A deeper decline could push price toward $0.27, a level not seen since early 2021
While this is not a definitive prediction, the repeating structure provides a clear framework for identifying potential risk zones.
Final Thoughts
The 50-week SMA remains the most important level for XRP’s macro trend. A strong and sustained recovery above this moving average could invalidate the bearish scenario. However, continued rejection would suggest that XRP may be entering another extended corrective phase.
As always, price action around this level will be crucial in defining XRP’s next major move.#XRP #CryptoAnalysis #Altcoins #TechnicalAnalysis #XRPPrice
