$BTC The global oil market is quietly shifting — and China is emerging as the biggest winner.
According to Bloomberg, prices for Russia’s flagship Urals crude have plunged to a historic discount, now trading at around $10 per barrel below Brent. Just months ago, the same barrels were commanding premiums. What changed? India stepped aside.
🇮🇳 Why India Pulled Back
After Western buyers exited Russian oil, Indian refiners rushed in, capitalizing on cheap supplies. But that surge didn’t last.
⚠️ U.S. sanctions targeting Lukoil and Rosneft cooled Indian demand
📉 Russian oil shipments to India fell to their lowest level in over 3 years
🛢️ Even though Reliance Industries made a recent purchase, overall appetite weakened
With India — the world’s third-largest oil importer — buying less, competition for Urals barrels dropped sharply.
🇨🇳 China Seizes the Opportunity
This vacuum opened the door for Chinese refiners.
Although Urals crude isn’t traditionally shipped to China (due to long distances from Russia’s western ports), the massive discount changed the math.
📊 Urals imports to China hit ~400,000 barrels/day in 2025 — a record high
🚢 Data from Kpler and Vortexa confirms the surge
🧮 Deep discounts outweigh higher transport costs
Meanwhile, China continues buying ESPO (VSTO) crude from Russia’s Far East — but Urals is now too cheap to ignore.
🌍 The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about oil prices — it’s about power shifts in global energy flows.
Russia struggles with logistics and sanctions
India grows more cautious amid geopolitical pressure
China quietly strengthens its energy security at bargain prices
💭 In markets, hesitation creates opportunity — and China didn’t hesitate.
🔥 #OilMarket #RussiaOil #ChinaEnergy #Geopolitics #EnergyShift
