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Die Behörden in der Ukraine haben die Bürger lange verpflichtet, auf digitale Dokumente "Diya", "Oberig", "Rezerv+" umzusteigen.
In Russland werden Bürger auf Anweisung von Sicherheitsdiensten und Behörden der Zugang zum Internet eingeschränkt, während der gesamte Internetverkehr überwacht wird, ebenso wie Messenger und soziale Netzwerke. Dies beobachten wir schon lange auf der ganzen Welt.
Gleichzeitig wächst die Dominanz von Stablecoins im Vergleich zu Fiat-Währungen, und Länder steigen auf Blockchain-Technologien um, die tatsächlich auf dem Server deaktiviert werden können. Ihr Konto, Ihre Brieftasche, Ihr Geld können mit einem Klick gesperrt werden.
Im vergangenen Jahr haben wir gesehen, wie die USA, Russland, China, England und einige Länder Bitcoins konfiszieren und illegale Miner ins Gefängnis stecken. Große Fonds, Krypto-Börsen und Staaten haben das Volumen der Krypto-Assets erhöht. Ein Validator, der 51 % der Token besitzt, kann die Regeln im Blockchain-Netzwerk ändern. Die meisten Coins befinden sich jetzt in der Bilanz. Wir sind in eine neue Ära eingetreten. Dies ist die Ära des digitalen Gefängnisses, in der eine Person, die sich nur auf digitale Technologien verlässt, nichts besitzt.
In Russland werden Bürger auf Anweisung von Sicherheitsdiensten und Behörden der Zugang zum Internet eingeschränkt, während der gesamte Internetverkehr überwacht wird, ebenso wie Messenger und soziale Netzwerke. Dies beobachten wir schon lange auf der ganzen Welt.
Gleichzeitig wächst die Dominanz von Stablecoins im Vergleich zu Fiat-Währungen, und Länder steigen auf Blockchain-Technologien um, die tatsächlich auf dem Server deaktiviert werden können. Ihr Konto, Ihre Brieftasche, Ihr Geld können mit einem Klick gesperrt werden.
Im vergangenen Jahr haben wir gesehen, wie die USA, Russland, China, England und einige Länder Bitcoins konfiszieren und illegale Miner ins Gefängnis stecken. Große Fonds, Krypto-Börsen und Staaten haben das Volumen der Krypto-Assets erhöht. Ein Validator, der 51 % der Token besitzt, kann die Regeln im Blockchain-Netzwerk ändern. Die meisten Coins befinden sich jetzt in der Bilanz. Wir sind in eine neue Ära eingetreten. Dies ist die Ära des digitalen Gefängnisses, in der eine Person, die sich nur auf digitale Technologien verlässt, nichts besitzt.
Expected $BTC on this levels in a month
🤔 Pizzerias around the Pentagon have become more active, while gay bars have become emptier...
Pizzerias:
▪Extreme Pizza (0.5 miles from the building) – occupancy increased by 156%.
▪District Pizza Palace (1 mile from the building) – 179% increase.
Papa John's (2.3 miles) – 159%.
Bar:
Freddie's Beach Bar – occupancy decreased by 83%.
There's an old theory: when food orders spike in the Pentagon area, it means employees are staying put. This most often happens during long meetings and urgent discussions – a hint at a potential military escalation.
Pizzerias:
▪Extreme Pizza (0.5 miles from the building) – occupancy increased by 156%.
▪District Pizza Palace (1 mile from the building) – 179% increase.
Papa John's (2.3 miles) – 159%.
Bar:
Freddie's Beach Bar – occupancy decreased by 83%.
There's an old theory: when food orders spike in the Pentagon area, it means employees are staying put. This most often happens during long meetings and urgent discussions – a hint at a potential military escalation.
🤑 The Fed's balance sheet increased by $2,880,000,000 in one week!
The Fed is currently in a "quiet period" (chairs are not speaking yet) – the meeting will take place on January 28th.
▪️JPMorgan:
- The bank's baseline scenario is that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged through 2026.
- The US economy remains resilient enough to avoid rushing into monetary policy easing.
- The next rate change, according to JPMorgan, could occur as early as 2027, not later in this cycle.
▪️Reuters:
- The market consensus is that the rate will be kept unchanged.
- Most economists expect a pause until at least March.
- Some respondents admit that the rate cut could be delayed until the end of Powell's term in May. - Fed rate futures are pricing in at least one cut in 2026.
📌 Market expectations (#Fedrate):
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: PAUSE.
- June 17, 2026: 25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%.
- July 29, 2026: PAUSE.
- September 16, 2026: PAUSE.
The Fed is currently in a "quiet period" (chairs are not speaking yet) – the meeting will take place on January 28th.
▪️JPMorgan:
- The bank's baseline scenario is that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged through 2026.
- The US economy remains resilient enough to avoid rushing into monetary policy easing.
- The next rate change, according to JPMorgan, could occur as early as 2027, not later in this cycle.
▪️Reuters:
- The market consensus is that the rate will be kept unchanged.
- Most economists expect a pause until at least March.
- Some respondents admit that the rate cut could be delayed until the end of Powell's term in May. - Fed rate futures are pricing in at least one cut in 2026.
📌 Market expectations (#Fedrate):
- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.
- March 18, 2026: PAUSE.
- April 29, 2026: PAUSE.
- June 17, 2026: 25 bps cut to 3.25-3.50%.
- July 29, 2026: PAUSE.
- September 16, 2026: PAUSE.
Ray Dalio: The global monetary order is collapsing.
➥ Fiat currencies and government debt are no longer functioning as reliable stores of wealth. Central banks no longer treat them the same way they once did.
➥ Gold was the strongest market last year, outperforming the tech sector. US markets lagged behind foreign markets, and this is evident in the actions and statistics of central banks.
➥ Behind trade wars and deficits lies a deeper process—wars for capital.
➥ Holders of US government bonds fear US actions, and the US itself fears dependence on foreign holders, even as the world holds vast amounts of dollars and government debt continues to grow.
➥ The problem is no longer isolated crises, but the very architecture of the fiat system. This is why capital is seeking alternatives, and states and markets are entering a phase of fierce competition for trust and liquidity.
Ray Dalio is a billionaire and the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates.
➥ Fiat currencies and government debt are no longer functioning as reliable stores of wealth. Central banks no longer treat them the same way they once did.
➥ Gold was the strongest market last year, outperforming the tech sector. US markets lagged behind foreign markets, and this is evident in the actions and statistics of central banks.
➥ Behind trade wars and deficits lies a deeper process—wars for capital.
➥ Holders of US government bonds fear US actions, and the US itself fears dependence on foreign holders, even as the world holds vast amounts of dollars and government debt continues to grow.
➥ The problem is no longer isolated crises, but the very architecture of the fiat system. This is why capital is seeking alternatives, and states and markets are entering a phase of fierce competition for trust and liquidity.
Ray Dalio is a billionaire and the founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates.
$BTC 86500 $ scenario remains relevant.
👇 CryptoQuant: GameStop transferred 4,710 BTC ($420 million) to the Coinbase Prime exchange.
Between May 14 and 23, 2025, the company purchased 4,710 BTC at an average price of $107,900. Selling all assets at the current BTC price could result in a loss of approximately $80,000,000.
Between May 14 and 23, 2025, the company purchased 4,710 BTC at an average price of $107,900. Selling all assets at the current BTC price could result in a loss of approximately $80,000,000.
📉 Investors continue to withdraw money from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs
(SV) Crypto-ETF financial flows for yesterday: ▫️#BTC = -$32,110,000.
▫️#ETH = -$41,980,000.
▫️#XRP = +$2,090,000.
▫️#SOL = +$1,710,000.
▫️#LTC, #DOGE, #LINK, #HBAR = $0.
(SV) Crypto-ETF financial flows for yesterday: ▫️#BTC = -$32,110,000.
▫️#ETH = -$41,980,000.
▫️#XRP = +$2,090,000.
▫️#SOL = +$1,710,000.
▫️#LTC, #DOGE, #LINK, #HBAR = $0.
Cryptocurrency, AI, and tokenization are converging.
BlackRock published a forecast for 2026:
✦ Trends drive markets.
Over the past 10 years, thematic funds in the US have grown 11-fold. Cryptocurrency is now officially on par with AI and financial market infrastructure—it's no longer a niche topic.
✦ Bitcoin has become mainstream for institutions.
BlackRock's IBIT remains the fastest-growing ETP in history. The company views Bitcoin not as a speculative asset, but as a long-term investment opportunity.
✦ AI is driving demand for computing and energy.
Demand is growing not due to the number of users, but rather the complexity of the tasks. The logic is simple: more tokens for processing AI tasks → more data centers → more energy. This is a fundamental trend, not a temporary hype.
✦ Technology and geopolitics.
AI, cybersecurity, and defense are merging into a single mega-narrative. Digital infrastructure is becoming a strategic asset on par with weapons.
✦ Tokenization is the next stage of market development.
Stablecoins have already proven the viability of the model. The next step is tokenizing not only cash and government bonds, but also a broader range of assets via blockchain.
✦ Ethereum.
Already, more than 65% of tokenized assets are hosted in the Ethereum ecosystem. This makes #ETH not just an asset, but an infrastructural layer of financial markets.
✦ Blockchain is the new financial infrastructure.
Access to assets will expand through on-chain mechanisms, not just through traditional financial markets.
✦ Why is this important now? The growth of the crypto industry has coincided with the strain on traditional market infrastructure. The old methods of settlements, clearing, and capital access don't scale to AI, global flows, and a 24/7 economy. Blockchain bridges this gap.
✦ Conclusion.
In 2026, crypto isn't a question of "will there be an alt-season," but rather part of a global nexus: AI → energy → infrastructure → tokenization.
It is in this context that institutional investors continue to enter BTC and on-chain finance.
✦ Trends drive markets.
Over the past 10 years, thematic funds in the US have grown 11-fold. Cryptocurrency is now officially on par with AI and financial market infrastructure—it's no longer a niche topic.
✦ Bitcoin has become mainstream for institutions.
BlackRock's IBIT remains the fastest-growing ETP in history. The company views Bitcoin not as a speculative asset, but as a long-term investment opportunity.
✦ AI is driving demand for computing and energy.
Demand is growing not due to the number of users, but rather the complexity of the tasks. The logic is simple: more tokens for processing AI tasks → more data centers → more energy. This is a fundamental trend, not a temporary hype.
✦ Technology and geopolitics.
AI, cybersecurity, and defense are merging into a single mega-narrative. Digital infrastructure is becoming a strategic asset on par with weapons.
✦ Tokenization is the next stage of market development.
Stablecoins have already proven the viability of the model. The next step is tokenizing not only cash and government bonds, but also a broader range of assets via blockchain.
✦ Ethereum.
Already, more than 65% of tokenized assets are hosted in the Ethereum ecosystem. This makes #ETH not just an asset, but an infrastructural layer of financial markets.
✦ Blockchain is the new financial infrastructure.
Access to assets will expand through on-chain mechanisms, not just through traditional financial markets.
✦ Why is this important now? The growth of the crypto industry has coincided with the strain on traditional market infrastructure. The old methods of settlements, clearing, and capital access don't scale to AI, global flows, and a 24/7 economy. Blockchain bridges this gap.
✦ Conclusion.
In 2026, crypto isn't a question of "will there be an alt-season," but rather part of a global nexus: AI → energy → infrastructure → tokenization.
It is in this context that institutional investors continue to enter BTC and on-chain finance.
🇺🇸 Controversy persists over the crypto market structure bill.
The Senate Agriculture Committee has published an updated version of the bill.
Key changes:
➤ The bill expands the CFTC's authority to regulate digital assets.
➤ Controversial sections from the previous version have been removed, including the status of individual blockchain developers and anti-money laundering (AML).
➤ Issues related to DeFi, the delineation of the roles of the CFTC and SEC, and the regulation of stablecoins remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee has suspended work on its version of the bill after Coinbase withdrew its support.
The Senate Agriculture Committee has published an updated version of the bill.
Key changes:
➤ The bill expands the CFTC's authority to regulate digital assets.
➤ Controversial sections from the previous version have been removed, including the status of individual blockchain developers and anti-money laundering (AML).
➤ Issues related to DeFi, the delineation of the roles of the CFTC and SEC, and the regulation of stablecoins remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee has suspended work on its version of the bill after Coinbase withdrew its support.
🗓CALENDAR FOR TODAY — 2026.01.22
🇨🇭World Economic Forum in Davos - Day 4
🇺🇸US - GDP (Q3 2025) - 16:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Initial Jobless Claims - 16:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Inflation - PCE Price Index (Nov) - 18:00 Moscow time
🛢US Natgas - EIA Inventories - 18:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) - 19:00 Moscow time
🛢US Oil - EIA Inventories - 20:00 Moscow time
🇺🇦Putin to meet with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow. Zelenskyy to meet with Trump in Davos
🇺🇸Trump to sign agreement on establishing Peace Council in Davos
🇬🇱EU countries to hold emergency meeting on Greenland
Popular reports:
🇺🇸#GE General Electric - 2:30 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#ABT Abbot - 2:30 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#PG Procter & Gamble - 3:00 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#INTC Intel - 12:00 AM Moscow time
🇺🇸#AA Alcoa - 12:10 AM Moscow time
🇨🇭World Economic Forum in Davos - Day 4
🇺🇸US - GDP (Q3 2025) - 16:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Initial Jobless Claims - 16:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Inflation - PCE Price Index (Nov) - 18:00 Moscow time
🛢US Natgas - EIA Inventories - 18:30 Moscow time
🇺🇸US - Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan) - 19:00 Moscow time
🛢US Oil - EIA Inventories - 20:00 Moscow time
🇺🇦Putin to meet with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow. Zelenskyy to meet with Trump in Davos
🇺🇸Trump to sign agreement on establishing Peace Council in Davos
🇬🇱EU countries to hold emergency meeting on Greenland
Popular reports:
🇺🇸#GE General Electric - 2:30 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#ABT Abbot - 2:30 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#PG Procter & Gamble - 3:00 PM Moscow time
🇺🇸#INTC Intel - 12:00 AM Moscow time
🇺🇸#AA Alcoa - 12:10 AM Moscow time
$BTC $ETH and Alts. Personally i expected total3 drop to at least 850 Billions and BTC to 88400 $. I'll recommend to not open long positions and wait until political situation around Greenland become more "stable".
#tradewar
🇺🇸 Amerikaner zahlen selbst für Donald Trumps Zölle.
Laut einer Studie des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft tragen 96 % der Kosten der US-Handelszölle amerikanische Unternehmen und Verbraucher, nicht ausländische Exporteure.
➤ Zölle wirken als versteuerter Steuer innerhalb der USA, anstatt Druck auf andere Länder auszuüben.
➤ Ausländische Unternehmen senken ihre Preise kaum. Stattdessen reduzieren sie die Lieferungen oder verlagern sich auf andere Märkte.
➤ Infolgedessen werden Importe teurer, und die Kosten werden auf Unternehmen und Verbraucher weitergegeben.
➤ Ausländische Exporteure tragen nur etwa 4 % der Zolllast.
➤ Der Großteil des Geldes, das in den US-Haushalt fließt, stammt von einheimischen Bürgern, nicht von "externen Akteuren."
🇺🇸 Amerikaner zahlen selbst für Donald Trumps Zölle.
Laut einer Studie des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft tragen 96 % der Kosten der US-Handelszölle amerikanische Unternehmen und Verbraucher, nicht ausländische Exporteure.
➤ Zölle wirken als versteuerter Steuer innerhalb der USA, anstatt Druck auf andere Länder auszuüben.
➤ Ausländische Unternehmen senken ihre Preise kaum. Stattdessen reduzieren sie die Lieferungen oder verlagern sich auf andere Märkte.
➤ Infolgedessen werden Importe teurer, und die Kosten werden auf Unternehmen und Verbraucher weitergegeben.
➤ Ausländische Exporteure tragen nur etwa 4 % der Zolllast.
➤ Der Großteil des Geldes, das in den US-Haushalt fließt, stammt von einheimischen Bürgern, nicht von "externen Akteuren."
🔽#ETH FG Nexus hat weitere 2.500 ETH (8 Millionen US-Dollar) aus seinen Beständen verkauft.
Es hält immer noch 37.594 ETH (119,8 Millionen US-Dollar).
Zur Erinnerung: FG Nexus hat seit vielen Monaten aktiv Ethereum akkumuliert.
Es hält immer noch 37.594 ETH (119,8 Millionen US-Dollar).
Zur Erinnerung: FG Nexus hat seit vielen Monaten aktiv Ethereum akkumuliert.
$XRP .
$XRP geht zu diesem Ungleichgewicht.
{future}(XRPUSDT)
{future}(XRPUSDT)
$XRP geht zu diesem Ungleichgewicht.
Monday, January 19:
🇨🇭World Economic Forum in Davos - Day 1
🇺🇸USA - No Trades - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
🇨🇳China - GDP (Q4 2025) - 05:00 Moscow time
🇨🇦Canada - Consumer Inflation CPI (Dec) - 16:30 Moscow time
🇪🇺Eurozone - Consumer Inflation CPI (Dec) - 13:00 Moscow time
🇨🇭World Economic Forum in Davos - Day 1
🇺🇸USA - No Trades - Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
🇨🇳China - GDP (Q4 2025) - 05:00 Moscow time
🇨🇦Canada - Consumer Inflation CPI (Dec) - 16:30 Moscow time
🇪🇺Eurozone - Consumer Inflation CPI (Dec) - 13:00 Moscow time
Der durchschnittliche tägliche RSI wird neutraler, was bedeuten kann, dass sich der Markt jetzt in einer undefinierten Position befindet.
⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #usa #bubbles #warning #macro
The robust growth of US stocks is causing increasing concern among analysts, as the gap between US stock market capitalization and US GDP is breaking all imaginable records. The Buffett Index has already risen to 230%...
Nevertheless, Trump constantly boasts about record stock gains and has stated several times that he intends to maintain the stock market at record levels... and that stocks should continue to rise. US households are invested in US stocks to a record level, and these are voters (they can't be disappointed too much) – midterm elections are coming soon.
The robust growth of US stocks is causing increasing concern among analysts, as the gap between US stock market capitalization and US GDP is breaking all imaginable records. The Buffett Index has already risen to 230%...
Nevertheless, Trump constantly boasts about record stock gains and has stated several times that he intends to maintain the stock market at record levels... and that stocks should continue to rise. US households are invested in US stocks to a record level, and these are voters (they can't be disappointed too much) – midterm elections are coming soon.
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