comexupdate

20 Million Ounces $XAG Draining Monthly. A 26% Physical Premium. Delivery at 98%.
This is no longer a price story.
It is a liquidity story.
More precisely:
a physical liquidity story inside a system built on paper leverage.
Silver at COMEX is not behaving like a normal commodity market.
It is behaving like a warehouse under stress.
I. Registered Silver: The Structural Drawdown
Five months ago:
200 million ounces of registered (deliverable) silver.
As of February 19, 2026:
88.79 million ounces remain.
A decline of more than 55% in less than half a year.
Average monthly drain:
~20 million ounces.
That represents roughly 30% of global monthly mine production.
If this pace continues — and if March contracts are not sufficiently rolled — registered inventory could mathematically approach zero by March 6, 2026.
A futures exchange without deliverable inventory is not a volatility event.
It is a structural event.
II. The Paper Price vs. The Real Price
COMEX reference price: ~ $55/oz.
Meanwhile:
First Majestic reports realized silver prices of ~$69.74/oz.Hecla Mining reports realized prices of ~$69.28/oz.
Two companies.
Two jurisdictions.
Two independent audit systems.
Same number: ~ $69.
That implies a 26–30% premium over COMEX pricing.
Industrial buyers are paying roughly $14 more per ounce to secure metal directly from miners rather than rely on exchange delivery.
This is not a temporary dislocation.
It is the physical market establishing its own clearing price.
COMEX may still set the reference.
It no longer appears to set reality.
III. Market Distortions Accelerating
1. Delivery Rate: 98%
Normal historical range: 5–20%.
February 2026: 98%.
Nearly every contract holder is demanding physical settlement.
When participants prefer metal over cash at scale,
the system is no longer functioning as a hedging venue.
It is functioning as a stress point.

2. Backwardation
Spot and near-dated contracts are trading above deferred months.
In commodity markets, persistent backwardation signals immediate physical scarcity.
It reflects urgency.
It reflects preference for present metal over future promises.

3. The China Arbitrage Channel
Shanghai silver $XAG trades up to $18/oz above New York.
Result:
Physical metal flows from the U.S. to China.
And it does not return.
Arbitrage is not just price convergence.
It is inventory extraction.
IV. Policy Friction: The Emerging Price Floor
While bullion banks attempt to contain paper pricing, U.S. policy signals move in the opposite direction.
Senior officials have confirmed the development of sophisticated price-floor mechanisms for strategic minerals — including silver.
The objective is clear:
Encourage domestic investment.
Secure supply chains.
Strengthen national resilience.
Strategic metals are not incentivized by suppressed pricing.
This creates a structural tension between short positioning and national industrial policy.
V. Five Indicators Over the Next Five Trading Days
Ahead of first notice day:
Roll rate
If open interest does not decline materially, March delivery pressure intensifies.
Registered inventory below ~85 million ounces
Delivery optionality becomes constrained.
Deeper backwardation spreads
Signals escalating physical stress.
Margin hikes
Indicates exchange intervention to reduce long positioning.
Eligible inventory declining alongside registered
Escalates risk from tightness to system-wide constraint.
Conclusion
The paper silver $XAG market is running out of time.
The physical silver market has already repriced — around $69 per ounce.
Such divergences rarely persist indefinitely.
Either:
Paper prices adjust upward,
orDelivery mechanisms face intervention or technical failure.
In this environment, the primary risk is not volatility.
It is availability.
When a centralized exchange begins to lose deliverable credibility,
repricing becomes less about speculation
and more about system integrity.
Quietly.
But decisively.

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*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#SilverDrain #Silver #COMEXUpdate

2025 wasn’t a rally.
It was a regime shift.
Gold $XAU didn’t just rise — it detonated higher.
Up 55% in a single year.
Fifty-three all-time highs.
Nearly one new record per week.
Strongest annual performance since 1979.
And we are now pressing against $5,000 per ounce.
This is not late-cycle euphoria.
It’s early-stage repricing.
1. Wall Street Is Still Underestimating the Move
The big banks are adjusting — but cautiously.
Goldman Sachs sees $5,400 by end of 2026, while openly admitting “significant upside risk.”JP Morgan sets a $6,300 base case.Their bullish scenario? $8,000–$12,000.
Those are not retail YouTube targets.
That’s institutional modeling.
And yet — allocations remain tiny.
More on that later.
2. Silver: The Quiet Structural Break
While gold headlines dominate, silver is where the imbalance is more violent.
Inventory Reality
COMEX silver inventories are down ~75% from 2020 levels.The global silver market has run a cumulative deficit of roughly 800 million ounces in recent years.That’s approximately one full year of global mine supply.
This isn’t cyclical.
It’s cumulative.

Industrial Pressure Is Exploding
Silver $XAG isn’t just a monetary metal.
It’s an industrial input:
AI semiconductorsSolar panelsEV battery systems
Industrial buyers used to hold 3–4 months of inventory.
Now?
Closer to one month.
That is not comfort inventory.
That is just-in-time vulnerability.
When buffer shrinks, price elasticity disappears.
3. The Three Forces Driving the Precious Metals Supercycle:
This isn’t a trade.
It’s macro physics.

Force #1: Currency Debasement
Governments don’t confiscate wealth directly.
They dilute it.
U.S. money supply expanded from $15 trillion to $21 trillion during COVID — over 40% expansion.
National debt: $38 trillion.
Interest expense?
Tripled in five years.
Governments do not default when debt becomes unbearable.
They inflate.
They allow the currency to lose purchasing power against real assets.
For 5,000 years, gold has survived one constant:
Paper eventually expands.
Metal does not.

Force #2: Central Bank Realignment
In 2022, Western nations froze Russia’s FX reserves.
That was a watershed moment.
It shattered the illusion that dollar reserves are politically neutral.
Since then:
Central bank gold purchases have increased fivefold.Poland, China, Turkey and others are aggressively accumulating physical metal.
Here’s the structural asymmetry:
Gold represents roughly:
~70% of reserves for the U.S., Germany, Italy.Only ~8% of reserves for China.
That gap is strategic.
If China merely rebalances toward Western reserve ratios, demand pressure becomes seismic.
This isn’t speculation.
It’s reserve diversification.

Force #3: Retail Has Barely Arrived
Despite the headlines, retail participation is still minimal.
Global fund allocation to gold?
Under 1%.
JP Morgan estimates that if allocations rise by just 0.5%, gold could mechanically reprice to around $6,000 almost immediately.
Think about that.
Half a percentage point.
We are nowhere near speculative mania.
We are in early institutional positioning.
4. Strategy: Understand the Risk Layers
Not all exposure is equal.
Miners: High Beta, High Risk:
Mining equities act as leveraged instruments on metal prices.
Upside can be explosive.
So can drawdowns.
Without risk management, they can destroy capital as quickly as they create it.
This is not passive exposure.
It’s tactical.
Physical Gold: Low Volatility Core:
Physical metal carries lower operational risk.
No management risk.
No counterparty risk.
No production surprises.
It functions as monetary insurance.
Less dramatic.
More durable.

The Bigger Picture:
Record sovereign debt.
Rising interest burdens.
Dollar reserve distrust.
Structural silver deficits.
Central banks accumulating.
Retail underexposed.
That combination doesn’t produce a normal bull market.
It produces repricing.
Gold $XAU approaching $5,000 isn’t a climax.
It’s confirmation.
Silver’s supply squeeze isn’t noise.
It’s pressure building inside the system.
And when institutional money rotates at scale,
price does not drift higher.
It gaps.
The public still thinks this is a rally.
It isn’t.
It’s a reset.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#GOLD #Silver #COMEXUpdate

The silver $XAG market just crossed a line.
Not sentiment.
Not speculation.
Policy.
February 2026 may be remembered as the month the U.S. government quietly admitted what the market has denied for years:
Silver is structurally underpriced — and the free market price is no longer trusted.
Here’s what changed.
1. The U.S. Silver Price Floor Is Real
According to reports confirmed by U.S. State Department officials, Washington is establishing a price floor mechanism for strategic minerals — including silver.
Let that sink in.
If silver trades below a defined threshold:
Tariff adjustments activateTrade policy steps inStrategic stockpiles deploy capital
This is not theory. It’s architecture.
The Structure
55 nations involved in discussions11 bilateral agreements signed (EU, Japan, Mexico among them)A $12 billion strategic reserve fund (“Project Vault”) announced
Governments do not impose price floors on assets that are in surplus.
They do it when:
Supply security mattersMilitary and tech dependence is risingMarket pricing is distorted
This is a tacit admission:
The “free market” silver price has been artificially suppressed.
And now Washington is building a backstop.
2. Hecla’s 30% Premium: The Paper Price Is Fiction
The cleanest proof doesn’t come from analysts.
It comes from producers.
Hecla Mining — the largest silver producer in North America — just reported:
Net income up 9x year-over-yearRecord operational performance
But here’s the number that matters:
COMEX reference average: $54.83Hecla’s realized selling price: $69.28
That’s roughly a 30% physical premium.
Industrial buyers are bypassing exchanges.
They are going directly to mines — paying above “spot” — because delivery certainty matters more than screen price.
When Samsung and other manufacturers negotiate directly with producers, it means one thing:
They do not trust the exchange to deliver.
Even more telling?
Hecla is divesting a $600M gold $XAU asset to double down on silver $XAG — despite gold trading near $5,000.
Capital flows reveal conviction.
3. APMEX: The Shortage That Was “Over” — But Isn’t
On February 17, the CEO of APMEX sent a letter to customers.
For nearly a month:
Shipments were delayedProduct selection was reducedStaff increased 25% to handle demandWeekend orders surged to 7x normal levels
The largest U.S. retail dealer was effectively gridlocked.
Yes, APMEX now claims operations have normalized.
But normalization coincided with a violent price smash.
Demand cooled because price collapsed — not because supply improved.
When silver resumes upward momentum, retail pressure returns instantly.
This wasn’t a one-off spike.
It was a stress test.
And it revealed fragility.
4. February 27: COMEX Under Pressure
Despite a brutal 46% price drop in late January — widely interpreted as an attempt to kill in-the-money options — the effort failed.
There are currently:
35,000 in-the-money call contracts
Equivalent to roughly:
175 million ounces of silver.
Registered silver available for delivery?
Approximately 98 million ounces.
If even a fraction of holders demand physical settlement, the math fractures.
Now layer this on top:
Shanghai physical silver trading at a 20% premiumMines selling at a 30% premiumCOMEX silver around $78
The arbitrage is obvious.
Buy on COMEX.
Take delivery.
Sell into industrial demand at higher real-world pricing.
The incentive to drain vaults is enormous.
The Bigger Picture: A New Cycle Is Starting
Gold has reclaimed $5,000.
Silver is back near $78.
China reopens after Lunar New Year on February 24.
COMEX First Notice Day lands February 27.
Those dates matter.
Not because of hype.
Because of flow.
Silver is entering what can only be described as the dawn phase of a structural repricing cycle.
The signal is no longer on trading screens.
It’s in:
Government price floorsProducer premiumsRetail dealer stressIndustrial direct sourcing
Ignore the red candles.
Watch what manufacturers pay.
Watch what governments guarantee.
When policy steps in to defend price,
the market has already admitted scarcity.
And this time, the backstop is public.

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Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#Silver #COMEXUpdate #HeclaMining

This is no longer about price.
It is about delivery.
It is about control.
And it may become the day the Western paper silver system is exposed.
The global silver $XAG market is approaching a structural emergency — and February 27, 2026 could mark the inflection point.
1. The COMEX Delivery Crisis – A Mathematical Event
February 27 is the First Notice Day for March silver $XAG futures on COMEX.
This is when traders must choose:
Roll the contract,Close for cash,Or demand physical delivery.
Under normal conditions, this is procedural.
This time, it is existential.
Over 400 million ounces are tied to March contracts.
COMEX has only 98 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery.
For the first time since modern records began, registered inventory fell below the psychological 100-million-ounce threshold on February 11, 2026.
Withdrawals are accelerating — averaging roughly 785,000 ounces per day.
If just 25–50% of contract holders demand physical metal, the exchange simply cannot perform.
This is not speculation.
This is arithmetic.
2. Investors Are Abandoning Paper
Historically, only 3–5% of futures traders take delivery.
February 2026 shattered that norm.
Delivery demand surged to 98%.
Even more revealing: during the violent price collapse on January 30 — when silver plunged from $121 to $64 — 3.3 million ounces were still withdrawn from vaults.
That behavior does not belong to retail speculators.
It signals something deeper:
Large players no longer trust “paper price.”
They want metal in hand.
When capital chooses custody over leverage, the system is already under stress.

3. The East–West Resource Divide
The silver market is fragmenting into geopolitical blocs — North America, Europe, Asia.
And the metal is flowing East.
China now controls roughly 70% of global refined silver output and added silver to its export control list effective January 1, 2026.
Shanghai inventories have fallen to just 318 tons, while massive short positions — reportedly up to 450 tons — sit exposed.
That imbalance echoes the nickel short squeeze of 2022.
Meanwhile, corporate behavior is shifting.
Samsung recently secured an exclusive two-year offtake agreement for the full output of a Mexican silver mine — bypassing exchanges entirely.
When technology giants stop relying on centralized exchanges for supply, they are voting with capital.
And they are voting against the paper system.
4. Signs of Structural Stress
The January collapse was not a normal correction.
CME raised margin requirements to 9%, creating what many describe as an automatic liquidation machine — forcing long positions to unwind into falling prices.
At the exact bottom on January 30, JP Morgan reportedly stood for delivery of over 3 million ounces at distressed prices.
Liquidity crisis for some.
Inventory acquisition opportunity for others.
Regulatory contrast is equally telling:
The U.S. remained largely silent.China suspended five commodity funds and penalized hundreds of traders for naked short selling to stabilize its domestic market.
Two systems.
Two philosophies of control.
5. The Structural Deficit
The world is running a 40–50 million ounce monthly silver deficit.
Since 2021, cumulative shortages have reached approximately 820 million ounces.
That is not cyclical.
That is structural.
Silver $XAG is no longer just an investment asset.
It is an industrial necessity — solar, electronics, defense systems, AI infrastructure.
Deficits in strategic materials do not resolve quietly.
They reprice.
6. The Force Majeure Scenario
If COMEX cannot deliver on February 27, it may declare force majeure and settle contracts in cash.
Legally possible.
Psychologically catastrophic.
Cash settlement would confirm what many already suspect:
Paper silver is leverage.
Physical silver is reality.
In that scenario, the price outside the paper system could decouple violently.
If the gold-silver ratio compresses under stress, projections of $300–$400 silver move from fantasy to probability.
Final Assessment
February 27, 2026 is not just another contract cycle.
It is a stress test of the Western silver pricing mechanism.
Governments are stockpiling.
Technology corporations are locking in supply.
Eastern markets are tightening control.
Silver is no longer a trade.
It is a strategic resource in a global power contest.
And when the custodians of paper cannot deliver metal,
price discovery will not be negotiated —
it will be forced.

🔔 Insight. Signal. Alpha.

Hit follow if you don’t want to miss the next move!
*This is personal insight, not financial advice.
#COMEXUpdate #Silver #SilverDrain

$3,6 nghìn tỷ USD bốc hơi trong 90 phút.
Truyền thông gọi đó là “healthy correction”.
Nhưng thị trường liên thông và dòng chảy vật chất lại kể một câu chuyện khác:
Đây không phải biến động.
Đây là quản trị rủi ro hệ thống.
1. Khi “Giá” Không Còn Là Giá
New York: $XAG $75–76/oz
Thượng Hải: $XAG $82/oz spot – $85/oz futures
Chênh lệch ~10%.
Trong thị trường kim loại, đó không phải là spread.
Đó là tín hiệu đứt gãy niềm tin.
Nếu arbitrage còn hoạt động, khoảng cách này đã bị san phẳng.
Nhưng nó không bị san phẳng.
Lý do đơn giản:
Giấy không còn được xem tương đương với kim loại.
Khi thị trường không tin vào khả năng giao hàng, premium xuất hiện.
Khi premium duy trì, hệ thống bắt đầu rạn nứt.

2. Khoảng Trống Thanh Khoản Được Tính Toán
Ngày 11/02 không phải ngẫu nhiên.
Từ 15/02 đến 23/02, Thượng Hải nghỉ Tết.
Người mua vật chất lớn nhất tạm rời khỏi thị trường.
Trong khoảng trống đó, áp lực bán thuật toán được kích hoạt.
Không phải để phá giá dài hạn.
Mà để quét stop-loss, ép thanh khoản và giải phóng áp lực giao hàng.
Đây không phải chiến tranh giá.
Đây là quản trị thời điểm.
3. COMEX: Khi Toán Học Bắt Đầu Nói Chuyện
429 triệu oz yêu cầu giao dịch tháng 3.
103,5 triệu oz trong kho đăng ký.
Tỷ lệ hơn 4:1.
Mô hình này chỉ vận hành nếu:
– Phần lớn người giữ hợp đồng chấp nhận cash settlement
– Hoặc giá đủ thấp để họ tự nguyện thoát vị thế
Giá bị ép xuống không phải vì cung dồi dào.
Mà vì giao hàng vật chất là rủi ro hệ thống.
Toán học không bao giờ cảm xúc.
Nó chỉ chờ thời điểm.
4. CPI Và Chiến Lược “Reset Trước Tin”
CPI công bố ngày 13/02.
Nếu lạm phát nóng → kim loại bật tăng.
Việc kéo giá xuống trước tin tạo ra:
– Vị thế tích lũy giá thấp
– Reset cấu trúc kỹ thuật
– Giảm áp lực short trước sóng biến động
Không phải phản ứng.
Là chuẩn bị.
5. Bức Tranh Lớn Hơn: Vàng, Bạc Và Dòng Chảy Sovereign
Trong khi thị trường đàm phán, Nga vẫn tiếp tục mua thêm bạc.
Dù kết quả địa chính trị ra sao, các ngân hàng trung ương Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ vẫn tăng dự trữ vàng $XAU .
Và nếu 300 tỷ USD tài sản bị đóng băng được mở khoá?
Khả năng cao một phần sẽ chuyển hoá thành vàng.
Sovereigns không tranh luận trên truyền hình.
Họ hedge.
Dollar có thể trở lại chu kỳ mạnh.
Nhưng vàng và bạc chưa từng rời khỏi cấu trúc dự trữ.
Kết Luận
Đây không phải sụp đổ.
Đây là rung cây.
Cung bạc toàn cầu vẫn thâm hụt năm thứ 6 liên tiếp.
Nhu cầu kim loại vật chất tại châu Á không hề suy yếu.
Câu hỏi không phải là: “Giá đã giảm bao nhiêu?”
Mà là: “Bao nhiêu hợp đồng thực sự có thể giao hàng?”
Ngày 27/02 sẽ cho thấy điều đó.
Toán học không thể bị trì hoãn mãi.
Chỉ có thể được quản lý — cho đến khi không còn quản lý được nữa.
Theo dõi kênh của tôi để nhận thêm các phân tích chuyên sâu và những góc nhìn có tín hiệu cao!
*Đây là quan điểm cá nhân, không phải khuyến nghị đầu tư.

#Silver #SilverDrain #COMEXUpdate

February 2026.
While the world is still half-asleep, hypnotized by AI stocks and tech narratives, a financial tsunami is quietly building beneath the floor of the COMEX.
A brutal scenario is taking shape:
The world’s largest silver exchange is on the verge of running out of physical silver $XAG .
Ignore the polished talking heads on TV. Ignore the “well-managed inventory” narratives.
The raw numbers tell a far darker story.
1. The “Inventory” Illusion: 100 Loaves of Bread for 400 Hungry People
COMEX currently lists just 103 million ounces of registered silver available for delivery.
Sounds like a lot?
Now look closer.
More than 400 million ounces are tied up in paper contracts.
That means the system is operating on a simple lie:
Four claims for every one ounce of real silver.
If only 25% of contract holders stand up and say,
“I don’t want cash — deliver my silver,”
the entire exchange collapses physically, not financially.
No bailout can print metal.
2. February 27, 2026: Judgment Day
Circle this date.
This is the final decision point:
Cash settlement — or physical delivery

Nearly 800,000 ounces of silver $XAG are leaving COMEX vaults every single day.
Delivery requests are approaching 98%.
This is no longer speculation.
It’s a stampede.
Hedge funds and industrial giants are scrambling for the last remaining bars.
3. Silver Lease Rates Explode to 8% — A Market Screaming for Metal
In a normal world, silver lease rates sit below 0.5%.
Today?
They’ve surged to 8% — a 16x increase.
Why?
Because physical silver has become more valuable than balance sheets.
Banks and short sellers are paying extreme premiums just to borrow metal and plug holes in their books.
This is what systemic stress looks like — right before failure.
4. The AI & EV Hunger Nobody Wants to Talk About
Everyone is obsessed with AI.
Almost no one mentions this inconvenient truth:
Without silver, AI is just electronic scrap.
Every AI chip.
Every EV.
Every solar panel.

Global supply has been in deficit for five consecutive years, totaling more than one billion ounces short.
You can’t print silver $XAG .
And the day chip factories slow down due to metal shortages is far closer than markets are pricing in.
5. The “Pull the Plug” Scenario — What Happens When the House Loses?
Don’t expect fairness.
When COMEX runs out of metal, history tells us exactly what comes next:
Forced cash settlement — dollars instead of silver
Rule changes mid-game — margin hikes designed to force liquidation
A split reality — $70 “paper silver” on screens, $150+ for real metal in the physical market
They’ve done it before.
Hunt Brothers, 1980.
GameStop, 2021.
The playbook never changes.
FINAL WARNING
The silver market has turned into a game of musical chairs.
The music has stopped.
There is one chair left.
Hundreds of players remain standing.
Ask yourself one question:
Are you holding paper promises, or real metal?
February 27, 2026 may be the day the curtain is ripped off the silver market — exposing what’s been hiding underneath for decades.
If you think you still have time, look at the vaults.
They’re emptying by the hour.
The final battle for physical silver has already begun.

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This is a personal insights, not financial advice | DYOR

#Silver #COMEXUpdate #GoldSilverRally