cryptoanalysis

Bitcoin is trading near $68,166 and the market is split. Is this the dip of a lifetime? Or are we heading for one final reset toward $50K? Let’s break it down.
📉 The Bear Case: The $50K Liquidity Sweep

Bitcoin is struggling under $72,000 resistance.
If we lose the psychological $60K level, the next major support sits around $50K–$53K a zone backed by long-term on-chain demand and the 0.618 Fib retracement.
Macro isn’t helping either:
• Bond yields remain elevated
• Liquidity is tight
• Risk appetite is fading. And technically?
Higher timeframe RSI shows bearish divergence price pushed up, but momentum didn’t confirm. That often precedes a final shakeout before a real reversal.
📈 The Bull Case: The Post-Halving Expansion

Fear & Greed Index is sitting near extreme fear.
Historically, this is where long-term money accumulates not exits.
We are still respecting the multi-year ascending structure from 2018. If Bitcoin follows prior cycles, this could simply be a mid-cycle correction, not the end.

The key level? - $72K–$73K.
A strong daily close above that level invalidates the bearish structure and opens the path toward:
→ $80K → $100K+ continuation
And unlike 2018, institutional participation via spot ETFs adds structural demand during dips.
💡 My View
Short term: Expect volatility between $60K and $70K. But with sentiment washed out and structure still intact, we may be closer to a bottom than a top.
I’m watching:
• $60K for downside invalidation
• $72K for bullish confirmation
Until then patience and positioning matter more than prediction.
#Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
#CryptoTrading #Altseason
$BTC

As of February 17, 2026, $XRP is stuck in a high-stakes battle between large sellers and long-term believers. After facing strong rejection at the $1.67 resistance, the token has slipped nearly 13% and is now hovering dangerously close to the lower edge of a bearish rising wedge pattern.
On-chain data shows a clear tug-of-war: whales have unloaded around 50 million XRP (roughly $75 million), while long-term holders are stepping in to absorb the pressure, boosting their holdings by about 17%. The big question now — can buyers hold the line?
⚠️ Technical Weakness: Rising Wedge in Focus
XRP’s recent structure is showing signs of fatigue after failing to sustain its mid-February momentum.
Rising Wedge Formation
Since early February, price action has been forming a rising wedge — typically a bearish exhaustion pattern. If price breaks below the lower trendline, the setup points to a potential ~26% downside move, bringing the psychological $1.00 level into play.
Hidden Bearish Divergence
On the 12-hour timeframe, RSI printed a higher high while price formed a lower high — a classic warning that bullish momentum was fading. This divergence preceded the sharp rejection from $1.67.
Strong Seller Reaction at $1.67
The long upper wick at $1.67 confirms aggressive supply overhead. Sellers are clearly defending this zone and blocking breakout attempts for now.
🐋 Whale Distribution vs 💎 HODLer Defense
The latest rejection appears heavily influenced by large wallet activity.
Whales Taking Profit
Addresses holding between 10 million and 1 billion XRP collectively offloaded about 50 million tokens during the recent rally attempt. This wave of supply has weighed on price momentum.
HODLers Buying the Dip
Long-term holders have been accumulating, increasing their net position from 127M to 150M XRP (≈17% rise). However, accumulation strength is still about 55% below the peak buying seen on February 1 — suggesting conviction is improving but not yet dominant.
🧱 Key Support Levels to Watch
XRP is approaching a crucial demand zone that could decide the next major move.
$1.26 — The Major Support Wall
Roughly 442 million XRP were accumulated between $1.27–$1.28, making this the most important support cluster. If bulls fail to defend it, a large portion of holders could fall into unrealized loss, potentially triggering panic selling.
Bearish Targets if Breakdown Occurs
First support: $1.16
Next level: $1.06
Psychological target: $1.00
Bullish Invalidation Scenario
To shift momentum back upward, XRP needs to:
Reclaim $1.48
Then secure a strong close above $1.67
Until then, pressure remains tilted to the downside.
📊 My Take
Right now, HODLers are absorbing supply — but not aggressively enough to fully neutralize whale distribution. If accumulation does not accelerate near $1.26, the support wall could weaken.
👉 Short term: Support at $1.26 is critical
👉 Momentum: Slightly bearish unless $1.48 is reclaimed
👉 Risk zone: A clean wedge breakdown could fast-track a move toward $1.00
⚠️ Financial Disclaimer
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The potential XRP move toward $1 and the reported 50M whale sell-off are based on technical patterns and on-chain data as of February 17, 2026. Patterns such as rising wedges and bearish divergences are probabilistic and do not guarantee future results.
XRP remains highly volatile. Prices can shift rapidly, and a break below $1.26 could lead to significant losses. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.
What’s your view?
Can HODLers absorb the whale pressure, or is $1.26 about to give way? 🚨📉
#xrp #XRPPredictions #CryptoAnalysis #CryptoTrading #Whales #HODL #altcoins