fomcminutes

Right now, at this exact moment, the crypto market is holding its breath.
The Federal Reserve is releasing the minutes from its January meeting today, February 18, 2026. These minutes will tell us exactly what Fed officials were thinking when they decided to keep interest rates frozen at 3.5% to 3.75%. They'll reveal whether policymakers are leaning toward cutting rates later this year or whether they plan to keep squeezing the economy with high rates for longer.
And that matters because Bitcoin is sitting at $68,000 right now. Down 46% from its all-time high of $126,300 just four months ago. The Fear and Greed Index is at 10. That's Extreme Fear. The lowest reading since the 2022 bear market bottom. Whales have deposited 12,000 additional BTC to exchanges in the past week, which historically means they're preparing to sell.
This is one of those days where the market picks a direction. Let me walk you through everything you need to know.
How Did We Get Here?

To understand why today matters, you need to understand how we got from $126K to $68K in just four months.
In October 2025, Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,300. ETF flows were massive. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust was pulling in hundreds of millions per day. Institutional money was pouring in. The narrative was simple: Bitcoin is going to $200K by year end. Everyone was euphoric.
Then November happened. BTC failed to hold the psychological $100K level. By November 18, it had crashed to $83,000. That was the first real crack. A lot of leveraged long positions got wiped out. The total crypto market cap started bleeding.
December brought a dead cat bounce back to $90,000. But the Federal Reserve killed the mood. In their December meeting, they delivered a 25 basis point cut, yes, but the language was brutal. They basically said don't expect more cuts anytime soon. The dot plot showed only 33 basis points of cuts projected for all of 2026. Markets were pricing in much more. The sell-the-news dynamic kicked in hard.
On top of that, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Powell's term ends May 15, 2026. Warsh is generally seen as more hawkish, which spooked risk-asset traders.
January 2026 made things worse. The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% as expected. BTC dropped to $82,400. Then the broader crash accelerated into February. Leveraged positions got liquidated. $49 million in longs were wiped in a single 24-hour period. BTC fell through multiple support levels and is now sitting at $68,000, right at the lower boundary of its consolidation range.
Here's the stat that should make you pay attention: Bitcoin only rallied after 1 out of 8 FOMC meetings in 2025. That's a 12.5% success rate. 75% of the time, crypto dropped after FOMC events. The pattern has been overwhelmingly sell-the-news.
What Are the FOMC Minutes and Why Do They Matter?
For those who are newer to this, let me explain what's actually happening today.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times per year to decide interest rates. When they met on January 28, they announced their decision: hold rates at 3.5-3.75%. That announcement was already priced in. Nobody expected a cut.
But the minutes are different. The minutes come out three weeks after the meeting and contain the detailed discussion. Who said what. What concerns were raised. Whether officials disagreed. How they view inflation going forward. Whether they're leaning toward cuts or holding firm.
This is where the real information lives. The announcement tells you what they did. The minutes tell you what they're thinking about doing next.
Specifically, traders are looking for three things. First, how many officials pushed for rate cuts versus how many want to wait. Second, how concerned they are about inflation staying sticky versus the economy slowing down. Third, any language about the timeline for the next cut, whether that's March, April, or later.
Two Scenarios: What Could Happen Today

There are really only two outcomes that matter. Either the minutes lean dovish (good for crypto) or hawkish (bad for crypto). Let me break down both.
Scenario A: Dovish. If the minutes show that several Fed officials expressed comfort with cutting rates in the near future, or if they highlighted falling inflation (CPI just came in at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, the lowest in over four years) or weakness in the labor market, the market will interpret this as rate cuts coming sooner. The dollar would likely weaken. Money flows from bonds into riskier assets. Bitcoin could rally toward the $72-75K range. Altcoins would pop 10-15%. The Fear and Greed Index would start climbing out of extreme territory.
I'd put the probability of this scenario at roughly 35%. The CPI data supports it. Inflation is genuinely falling. Employment data is softening. Multiple analysts, including Liz Thomas, have noted that markets are now pricing in about 2.5% in total cuts for 2026, the most since December. There's a real case that the Fed is closer to cutting than people think.
Scenario B: Hawkish. If the minutes emphasize patience, highlight that inflation risks remain elevated (especially from tariffs, which the Fed flagged in their December minutes as a driver of goods inflation), or suggest that the recent pause should be extended well into 2026, this is the bearish outcome. The dollar strengthens. Risk appetite disappears. Bitcoin could test the critical $65,000 support level. If $65K breaks, the next significant support is $60,000. Liquidation cascades become a real risk with the current amount of leveraged longs in the market.
I'd put this at roughly 65% probability. The Fed's own dot plot from December projected only 33 basis points of cuts for 2026. Multiple officials have been on record saying patience is warranted. The Warsh nomination signals a more hawkish direction for the Fed going forward. And the last eight FOMC events have been bearish for crypto 75% of the time.
The Numbers You Need to Watch Right Now

Let me give you the exact levels and data points that are going to determine what happens next.
The Fear and Greed Index is at 10. This is Extreme Fear. For context, this is the same level we saw during the worst of the 2022 bear market. Historically, extreme fear readings have marked local bottoms about 60% of the time. But 40% of the time, they preceded even more downside. Extreme fear doesn't automatically mean buy. It means the market is scared, and scared markets can get more scared.
Bitcoin's critical support is at $65,000. This is the level that absolutely must hold. If BTC closes a daily candle below $65K, the next stop is likely $60,000, which coincides with historical support from early 2025. Below that, there isn't major support until the $55-58K range. Conversely, $69,500 is the resistance that BTC needs to break above to confirm any kind of reversal. A daily close above $69,500 would be the first bullish signal we've gotten in weeks.
The Fed rate sits at 3.50-3.75%. Markets don't expect a cut at the next meeting (March 17-18), but the probability of a cut by April is rising. CME FedWatch shows about 52% probability of a March cut, up from lower levels. If today's minutes push that probability higher, it's bullish for crypto.
CPI inflation came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below the expected 2.5%. This is the lowest reading in over four years and it's getting close to the Fed's 2% target. This data supports the case for rate cuts. But the Fed's preferred measure, PCE inflation, drops on February 20. That's another potential catalyst just two days away.
The whale data is concerning. On-chain analytics show that addresses holding large amounts of BTC have deposited roughly 12,000 additional BTC to exchanges like Binance in the past week. Exchange reserves increasing like this typically means big players are positioning to sell. It doesn't guarantee selling, but it increases supply-side pressure.
What You Should Actually Do Today

I'm going to be specific here because I think vague advice is useless in moments like this.
If you're already holding BTC or altcoins, do not make any moves before the FOMC minutes are released. Seriously. Wait for the reaction. If the minutes are dovish and the market rallies, you're holding through a recovery. If the minutes are hawkish and we drop, you'll have better information to decide whether to hold, add a stop-loss, or reduce your position. Panic selling at $68K when the Fear index is at 10 is exactly how people lose money. They sell the bottom and buy the top. Set a stop-loss at $64K if you need a safety net, but don't sell into panic.
If you want to buy the dip, patience is everything today. Do not rush in before the minutes drop. If the minutes are dovish, buy in the $67-68K range with a plan to add more if we push lower. If the minutes are hawkish, wait for $65K or below for a better entry. In either case, don't go all in. Use a DCA approach. Put 20-30% of your intended capital in now, and save the rest for after we get clarity from both the FOMC minutes and the PCE data on February 20.
If you're on the sidelines with cash, remember that cash is a position. You are not missing out. You are positioned to buy when the risk-reward is best. Watch for a daily close above $69,500 as a confirmed bullish signal. Watch for a break below $65K as a warning of more pain to come. Set alerts on your phone and let the market come to you. Staring at 1-minute candles all day will not help you make better decisions.
The Bigger Calendar: What's Coming After Today

Today isn't the only event that matters. There's a loaded calendar over the next few months that will determine whether crypto recovers or digs deeper into bear territory.
Right after today's FOMC minutes, we have the PCE inflation data dropping on February 20. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. If PCE comes in soft, it massively strengthens the case for rate cuts and could trigger a relief rally even if today's minutes are hawkish. Mark this date.
ETHDenver runs from February 18 to 25. While it's focused on Ethereum, the speakers this year include SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Commissioner Hester Peirce, and Bo Hines from the White House crypto advisory team. Any positive regulatory signals from these officials could act as a catalyst for the entire market. Crypto regulation clarity has been one of the most anticipated themes of 2026.
The next FOMC meeting is March 17-18. This is the big one. It comes with updated economic projections and a new dot plot showing where officials think rates are heading. If the dot plot shifts toward more cuts than the current projection of 33 basis points, the market will front-run the easing with a significant rally.
And then there's the wildcard: May 15, when Jerome Powell's term officially ends and Kevin Warsh is expected to take over as Fed Chair. Warsh is considered more hawkish than Powell, which could create headwinds for risk assets. But there's also a scenario where Warsh, wanting to establish himself, starts his tenure with a cut to show he's not just a hawk. The market will be gaming this transition for months.
My Take: What I'm Doing Personally
I'm not going to pretend I have a crystal ball. But I'll tell you exactly what I'm doing with my own positions.
I'm holding my existing BTC position. I didn't sell at $100K and I'm not selling at $68K. My cost basis is lower than current prices and my time horizon is measured in years, not days. But I did set a stop-loss at $63,500 just in case we get a cascading liquidation event.
I'm keeping 50% of my trading capital in stablecoins. If today's minutes are dovish and we get a pop toward $72K, I'm not chasing. If the minutes are hawkish and we test $65K, I'm putting 25% of that cash to work. If we hit $60K, I'm deploying the remaining 25%. I'd rather buy lower and be patient than try to catch a falling knife at the first sign of green.
On altcoins, I'm doing nothing until Bitcoin shows a clear direction. Alts follow BTC in moments like this, and they follow it harder. A 5% BTC move translates to 10-20% on most alts. There's no reason to have heavy alt exposure until BTC reclaims $70K.
The one thing I'm watching more than price right now is the PCE data on February 20. If PCE inflation comes in below expectations, that's the real catalyst that could end this correction. The FOMC minutes set the stage, but PCE data is the trigger.
Whatever happens today, don't let the fear make your decisions. Extreme fear is when the best opportunities are created. But those opportunities require patience, discipline, and a plan. Have a plan before the minutes drop. Stick to it after.

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