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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that Bitcoin's sharp 52% drop from its October 2025 all-time high (now trading around $67,000–$68,000) is sounding a major alarm. In his latest essay "This Is Fine," Hayes argues BTC's divergence from a flat Nasdaq signals an impending AI-driven financial crisis.
The rise of artificial intelligence is likely to displace millions of white-collar workers rapidly, triggering widespread credit defaults. Hayes models that even a 20% job loss among America's 72.1 million knowledge workers could lead to roughly $330 billion in consumer credit losses and $227 billion in mortgage defaults — hitting regional banks hard and equating to about half the severity of the 2008 crisis.
Bitcoin acts as the "global fiat liquidity fire alarm," reacting fastest to tightening credit conditions while Nasdaq hasn't fully priced in the AI disruption yet. This explains BTC's plunge amid broader risk-off sentiment.
However, Hayes sees a silver lining: The crisis would force the Federal Reserve into "the biggest money printing in history" to bail out banks and stabilize the system. Massive liquidity injections historically pump risk assets — and Bitcoin would surge off lows, with forward expectations of more easing driving it to fresh all-time highs.
Short-term downside risk remains (possible dip below $60,000 if credit stress intensifies), but the ultimate outcome is bullish once the Fed hits the "Brr" button. Hayes emphasizes: The worse the fall, the harder the central banks respond.
This macro thesis ties into current market fear, ETF outflows, and cooling AI disruption worries — but Hayes believes BTC holders should view the dip as a setup for the next leg up.

#bitcoin #ArthurHayes #AICrisis #FedPrintingMoney #CryptoNews $BTC
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