ltc

Is Litecoin quietly setting up for another breakdown while the crowd waits for a bounce?
Litecoin (LTC) remains under sustained selling pressure, trading below the $54 mark at the time of writing on Thursday. The asset has declined more than 3% since the start of the week, with price structure and derivatives data both pointing toward weakening bullish conviction.
Derivatives Data Signals Fading Confidence
Litecoin’s futures Open Interest (OI) has fallen to approximately $341 million, extending a steady decline that began in mid-January. A shrinking OI typically reflects reduced capital inflows and declining trader participation. In a bearish context, this often confirms that long positions are being closed rather than new bullish exposure being added.
Meanwhile, the long/short ratio stands at 0.98, marking the third time this month it has failed to hold above 1. A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions slightly outnumber longs — a subtle but important shift in sentiment. Traders appear hesitant to aggressively accumulate, reinforcing the cautious tone dominating the market.
Technical Structure Favors the Bears
At the time of publication, LTC is hovering around $53.28.
The 9-day SMA (54.14 USD) remains well below the 50-day SMA (66.99 USD).
Both moving averages are sloping downward, confirming a prevailing bearish trend.
Price continues to trade beneath these dynamic resistance levels.
On the daily timeframe:
MACD remains slightly above the zero line, but the histogram is contracting — a warning that bullish momentum is fading.
RSI sits at 33, below the neutral 50 level and approaching oversold territory, reflecting weak demand and defensive positioning.
From a Fibonacci perspective, measuring the swing from $70.49 to $45.07:
38.2% retracement: $54.78 → Immediate resistance
50% retracement: $57.78 → Stronger recovery barrier
As long as LTC remains capped below $54.78 on a daily close basis, upside attempts may continue to face selling pressure.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Resistance: $54.78
Secondary Resistance: $57.78
Major Support: $50.39 (aligned with weekly structure)
If Litecoin fails to reclaim and hold above $54.78, market focus may shift toward the $50.39 support zone. A decisive breakdown below this level could reinforce the broader downtrend narrative.
However, a confirmed daily close above $54.78 could ease short-term bearish pressure and open room toward the 50% retracement near $57.78.
Market Outlook
The combination of declining Open Interest, a sub-1 long/short ratio, downward-sloping moving averages, and weakening momentum indicators suggests that bearish forces remain in control — at least for now.
That said, crypto markets are highly reactive. Any surge in volume or derivatives positioning could quickly reshape the short-term outlook.
📌 This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal market observations. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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