luncplaybullrun

#LUNC #LUNCPLAYBULLRUN #IfYouAreNewToBinance
Analyzing Terra Luna Classic using the full dataset provided — EMAs, MACD, inflows, volatility, burns, and sentiment.

Let’s turn that into a structured pre–March end trading plan (short-term swing framework).

📊 Current Technical Summary

Price: $0.00003510

Structure:

Above 7 / 25 / 99 EMA → short-term bullish bias

MACD bearish crossover → momentum slowing

High ATR & Std Dev → volatility expansion

Positive inflow spike → fresh liquidity entering

Interpretation:

⚖️ Bullish structure, but momentum fragile.

🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Immediate Support

$0.00003350 – 0.00003400 (EMA cluster zone)

$0.00003180 (recent volatility low)

Immediate Resistance

$0.00003650 – 0.00003700

$0.00003950

Psychological: $0.00004000

🟢 Entry Strategy (Before March End)
✅ Conservative Entry (Pullback Play)

Enter around:

$0.00003380 – 0.00003420

Reason:

EMA support

Better risk/reward

Lower volatility entry

Stop Loss:

$0.00003150

✅ Breakout Entry (Momentum Play)

Enter only on:

Strong 4H close above $0.00003700

Stop Loss:

$0.00003520

🎯 Take Profit Plan
TP1: $0.00003680

Short-term resistance flip

TP2: $0.00003950

Prior surge high

TP3: $0.00004200 – 0.00004500

If burn narrative + volume expands

Scale out:

40% at TP1

30% at TP2

30% runner

If:

Price closes below $0.00003150

MACD expands further negative

Inflows reverse sharply

Then next support becomes:

$0.00002800 – 0.00002900

🧠 Burn Math Reality Check

Even with:

5B monthly burns

200M weekly burns

Supply is still ~5.46 trillion.
Burns are bullish short term (catalyst),
but not strong enough yet for exponential repricing.

📈 Probability Model (Short-Term)

Until March end:

55% probability: Range between 0.000032 – 0.000040

30% probability: Push toward 0.000042+

15% probability: Breakdown below 0.000030

🧩 Smart Position Sizing

Because volatility is elevated:

Risk only 1–3% of total capital per trade

Avoid heavy leverage

Take partial profits aggressively

Final View

LUNC right now is:

📌 Sentiment-supported

📌 Burn-catalyst sensitive

📌 Technically recovering

📌 Structurally still supply-heavy

This favors swing trades, not long-term moon bets.
$LUNC