longterminvestment

Crypto markets are a strange arena. They run 24/7. They ignore weekends. They react to tweets, macroeconomics, regulation, and collective human emotion in real time. In this environment, two dominant approaches emerge: day trading and long-term investing.
Both can work. Both can fail spectacularly. The difference lies in psychology, risk tolerance, time horizon, and execution discipline.
Let’s unpack them carefully.
1. Day Trading in Crypto
Day trading means entering and exiting positions within the same day, sometimes within minutes or hours. The goal is to profit from short-term price volatility rather than long-term growth.
Crypto is especially attractive to day traders because volatility is high. Coins can move 5–15% in a single day. That is opportunity—but also danger.
Pros of Day Trading
High frequency of opportunities. Since crypto markets never close, setups appear constantly across pairs like BTC/USDT or ETH/USDT.
Compounding potential. Small consistent gains, when managed with risk control, can grow capital quickly.
No overnight exposure. You avoid unexpected news, hacks, or macro shocks while sleeping.
Skill development. You become sharper in reading price action, liquidity zones, support and resistance, volume spikes, and momentum indicators.
Cons of Day Trading
Emotional pressure. Rapid decisions trigger stress hormones. Fear and greed amplify mistakes. Overtrading becomes a silent capital killer.
High transaction costs. Fees and slippage eat into profits, especially with leverage.
Time intensive. You must monitor charts frequently. It becomes a job, not a passive activity.
Statistical reality. Most retail day traders underperform over time due to poor risk management and psychological errors.
Day trading is less about intelligence and more about emotional regulation. The market punishes impulsivity instantly.
2. Long-Term Investment in Crypto
Long-term investing involves buying assets you believe will grow in value over years. You hold through volatility, betting on adoption, innovation, and macro trends.
Think of early believers in Bitcoin during 2013–2015 cycles. They endured brutal drawdowns but benefited from exponential growth over time.
Pros of Long-Term Investing
Lower stress. You are not reacting to every candle. Emotional noise decreases.
Power of compounding. Major crypto cycles historically reward patience during multi-year expansions.
Reduced fees. Fewer transactions mean lower cumulative trading costs.
Time efficiency. Ideal for professionals who cannot monitor charts constantly.
Cons of Long-Term Investing
Large drawdowns. Crypto bear markets can wipe 70–90% of value temporarily.
Capital lock-in. Funds are tied up for long periods.
Project risk. Not all cryptocurrencies survive. Some vanish entirely.
Opportunity cost. While holding, you may miss shorter-term trading opportunities.
3. Psychology: The Hidden Battlefield
Day trading tests impulse control. Long-term investing tests patience.
One demands quick decisions under pressure. The other demands sitting still while your portfolio fluctuates wildly.
Interestingly, neuroscience shows that uncertainty activates the same brain regions as physical pain. Crypto markets amplify uncertainty. Understanding this helps you detach emotionally and operate strategically rather than reactively.
4. Which One Is Better?
The honest answer: it depends on your personality, lifestyle, and skill level.
If you enjoy market structure analysis, can control risk per trade (typically 1–2% of capital), and manage stress effectively, day trading can be viable.
If you believe in blockchain adoption, have strong conviction in selected projects, and prefer lower daily stress, long-term investing may suit you better.
Some experienced traders combine both: a core long-term portfolio plus a smaller active trading account.
5. Final Thought
Crypto is not a guaranteed wealth machine. It is a probabilistic environment. Risk management, position sizing, and emotional discipline matter more than prediction.
The market does not reward hope. It rewards structured thinking and consistency.
The real question is not “Which strategy makes more money?”
It is “Which strategy can you execute consistently without sabotaging yourself?”
Because in trading, psychology is the real leverage.

#DayTradingTips #LongTermInvestment #LongTermVision #daytrading #StrategicTrading $BTC $ETH $PAXG

Some of the most valuable things in the market never announce themselves. They don’t advertise, they don’t tell you to “buy,” and they certainly don’t ask for attention. They simply remain there - empty. In crypto, that empty chair always appears when the majority has already stood up and walked away. And more often than not, that moment is happening right now.
1. When the empty chair appears – the market falls silent
In December 2022, Solana was trading around 10 USD as the market was completely overwhelmed by bad news, from the collapse of FTX to the broader breakdown of the ecosystem. There were no KOLs, no narratives, no convincing bull cases to hold onto. The Fear & Greed Index sank deep into Extreme Fear, below 15, and the market entered a state of near-total silence. No one invited you to buy, no one confirmed you were right, and all that remained was an empty chair and the weight of doubt.
2. Those who sat down before anyone else did
The people who chose to sit in that empty chair were not necessarily smarter than everyone else, but they were willing to act without validation. Solana moved from around 10 USD to over 200 USD in the following year, while Ethereum climbed from the 1.000–1.200 USD range to above 4.000 USD. The reward did not come from being immediately right, but from enduring the discomfort of being trusted by no one while the market looked the other way.
3. The empty chair appears when data contradicts emotion
At such moments, data tends to be colder and more uncomfortable than sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index hovered around 10 out of 100, total market capitalization stood near 2.35 trillion USD, sharply down from its peak, BNB and ETH corrected deeply by 40–50%, and Bitcoin moved sideways long enough to erode patience across the market. There was no FOMO, no certainty, and no invitation - only an empty chair left in a place the crowd no longer wanted to sit.
4. Why most people never sit in that chair
Most investors miss the empty chair not because they lack knowledge, but because human nature craves confirmation. We are conditioned to wait until others sit first, until success is visible, until applause makes the decision feel safe. Yet in investing, once the chair is full, the reward has usually already been distributed.

5. The real lesson of the “empty chair”Opportunities never arrive in the form of clear promises. They come disguised as uncertainty, doubt, and that familiar question: “What if I’m wrong?” If you need reassurance before entering a position, you are likely already too late. But if you can tolerate sitting alone, without applause or validation, you may be exactly where the market has left space.
#fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

In the crypto market, fear rarely comes from bad news. It comes from time. Time without a rebound. Time watching red numbers sit on your screen. And time listening to the same question echo around you: “What if this time is different?”

Managing fear is not about eliminating emotion. It’s about understanding what you are afraid of—and where that fear sits within the market cycle.
1. The First Fear: “What if this isn’t the bottom yet?”
When price declines deeply and for a long time, the greatest fear is not losing money—it’s buying too early. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) reflects this state perfectly.

In past cycles, whenever NUPL moved into negative territory, the majority of the market entered a phase of unrealized losses. Not everyone sold immediately, but confidence quietly eroded. What matters is this: deep negative NUPL zones usually appeared before the bottom was confirmed, not after.
This fear is purely psychological. There is no confirmation, no certainty—only the same thought repeating itself: “What if it goes lower?” Those who cannot tolerate uncertainty stay on the sidelines. Those who can endure ambiguity begin to build positions slowly.
2. The Second Fear: “I’m already too deep in the red”
If the first fear is doubt, the second is pain. Drawdown shows how much damage the market has absorbed, while SOPR reveals whether participants are selling at a profit or a loss.

When SOPR stays below 1, it means most selling is happening at a loss. This is no longer theoretical fear—it is fear reflected directly in portfolios. At this stage, emotions shift from anxiety to exhaustion. The dominant desire is no longer to optimize, but simply to escape.
Historically, deep drawdowns do not end with sudden panic, but with prolonged fatigue. People sell not because of new bad news, but because they can no longer endure waiting.
Managing fear here is not about predicting the bottom. It’s about position sizing. An oversized position turns normal volatility into a psychological crisis.
3. The Final Fear: “Everyone is selling”

When fear spreads, it becomes visible on-chain.
Rising exchange inflows signal one thing clearly: coins are being moved to exchanges to be sold.
Major inflow spikes often coincide with sharp declines, when the crowd stops thinking in terms of long-term strategy and focuses solely on capital preservation. The paradox is that selling pressure does not last forever. Once most fearful participants have sold, supply begins to dry up.
At this stage, fear is no longer individual - it becomes collective. And that is often when the market starts to stabilize - not because good news appears, but because there is no one left who urgently needs to sell.
🚀🚀🚀 Fear Never Disappears—It Only Changes Shape. In crypto, fear is constant:
• Fear of buying too early
• Fear of being deeply underwater
• Fear of selling at the wrong time
The difference between those who survive cycles and those who leave the market is not the absence of fear, but the ability to understand where that fear comes from.
Charts do not remove fear. But they reveal whether your fear is shared by the crowd.
And when fear becomes common, the advantage often belongs to those who remain patient ==> long after patience feels uncomfortable.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

Tôi từng bán BTC và SOL gần như ở vùng đỉnh. Một quyết định đúng về mặt chu kỳ. Dòng tiền khi đó cho thấy sự hưng phấn mạnh ở các coin dẫn dắt. Việc chốt lời ở BTC và SOL không xuất phát từ cảm xúc, mà từ nhận thức rằng thị trường đang chuẩn bị bước sang giai đoạn bullrun mạnh. Nếu chọn ONDO sẽ có một sức công phá mạnh mẽ hơn về lợi nhuận
Sai lầm không nằm ở đó. Sai lầm nằm ở nhịp kế tiếp. Logic đúng, nhưng thị trường không đi theo logic. Tôi cuộn vốn sang ONDO với một giả định tưởng như rất hợp lý: Dòng tiền sau khi rời khỏi các coin nền tảng lớn sẽ dịch chuyển sang các altcoin topcap, đặc biệt là những dự án có narrative dài hạn, liên quan đến tài sản thực và dòng tiền tổ chức. ONDO hội đủ mọi điều kiện trên giấy:
• Thuộc nhóm RWA hot trend
• Narrative phù hợp với chu kỳ
• Không phải coin rác, không phải meme
Trung bình giá vào của tôi khoảng $0.8. Kế hoạch là DCA, chờ altseason xác nhận, và hưởng phần còn lại của chu kỳ. Nhưng thị trường không vận hành theo slide thuyết trình của chu kỳ trước
Altseason không đến chỉ vì mọi người tin nó sẽ đến. Altseason không khởi động khi: Nhà đầu tư bắt đầu nói về nó với narrative đã đủ đẹp. Altseason chỉ xuất hiện khi: BTC hoàn tất pha chạy của mình, dominance của BTC suy yếu rõ ràng và thị trường có lợi nhuận thực để xoay vòng, nơi thanh khoản mới chấp nhận rủi ro cao hơn
NHƯNG tại thời điểm tôi mua ONDO, LUẬT CHƠI ĐÃ HOÀN TOÀN THAY ĐỔI. ONDO không yếu – nhưng nó bị đặt sai thời kỳ và hào quang của nó chưa thể bật sáng lúc này trong sự suy yếu chung của thị trường.
Khi thị trường chưa sẵn sàng cho altseason hồi sinh, ngay cả altcoin “tốt” cũng chỉ có một vai trò: hấp thụ lực bán. Kết quả: danh mục âm 70%

Tôi không thua vì chọn sai coin. Tôi thua vì:
• Đánh cược vào kịch bản cũ
• Đánh cược vào “chuyện sẽ xảy ra” thay vì “chuyện đang xảy ra”
• Nhầm lẫn giữa tầm nhìn dài hạn và timing ngắn – trung hạn
Đúng với một câu trước đây là tôi chưa hiểu thật rõ: Thị trường không thưởng cho người đúng sớm. Nó chỉ thưởng cho người đúng đúng lúc.
Bài học đắt giá
1. Altseason không phải là một niềm tin – nó là một trạng thái thị trường.
2. Narrative không kích hoạt dòng tiền, thanh khoản mới làm điều đó.
3. Coin tốt không cứu được timing sai.
4. Giữ tiền trong alt khi market chưa risk-on không khác gì tự nguyện đứng ở vùng hy sinh.
Kết luận
Bán BTC và SOL ở đỉnh là một quyết định đúng. Nhưng cuộn vốn sang altcoin topcap khi thị trường chưa cho phép mà không giữ tỷ lệ tiền mặt an toàn, position sizing thiếu khoa học, là một cái giá phải trả cho sự tự tin đi trước đám đông.
Đây không phải câu chuyện về ONDO.
Đây là bài học về timing altseason – nơi chỉ cần đi bias vào một kịch bản bullrun duy nhất, lợi thế sẽ biến thành thua lỗ. Và trong thị trường này, đúng sớm không đồng nghĩa với đúng.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

The halo never disappears, it only fades when belief runs ahead of reality. In every market cycle, investors ask the same question - too early and almost always for the wrong reason. They wait for the halo to return as if it were a signal, a permission slip to believe again. But the market has never worked that way. The halo does not return when prices stop falling; it returns when the market truly stops bleeding.

History is brutal, yet remarkably consistent: the halo never appears at the bottom. After every major Bitcoin drawdown, belief only begins to recover once price has already reclaimed 30–50% from the lows. By then, fear is no longer strong enough to force selling, but not weak enough to inspire confidence; it mutates into doubt and hesitation. The crowd is no longer panicking, yet no longer certain that staying on the sidelines was the right decision. The halo does not emerge at the point of maximum despair, but at the moment people realize they may already be late. Price is forgiven before belief has time to return.

On-chain data exposes a truth many charts prefer to hide: markets do not recover when volatility subsides, but when losses are actually realized. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes this painfully clear. At cycle peaks, profits dominate, the ratio expands, and confidence grows loud; when cycles break, that ratio collapses - sometimes violently. As of early 2026, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen sharply from the euphoric levels of mid-2025 and now hovers around a zone where profits barely exceed losses. This is not recovery; it is digestion. The halo cannot return while the market is still swallowing its own mistakes. Only when realized losses slow - when sellers are no longer forced but exhausted - does the market regain the capacity to believe.

The most misunderstood phase of every cycle is the quiet one. After the crash, after the headlines fade, and after even the optimists grow tired of explaining why “this time is different,” the market slips into silence. Volatility compresses, price moves sideways, and nothing seems to happen - until it does. The halo does not arrive during explosive rallies or moments of capitulation; it forms during prolonged indifference. When the market forgets how to scream, it slowly remembers how to trust.
The halo does not belong to those who perfectly call the bottom or exit at the top, but to those who survive the middle. They are the investors who preserve capital, who manage position size instead of chasing conviction, and who remain present when belief has disappeared. The halo does not reward bravery ==> it rewards endurance.

The halo will return - this has never changed. But it will not return because the market suddenly feels optimistic again; it will return because the market no longer needs optimism to function. And by the time everyone can see it, the halo already belongs to those who waited without asking for permission.
#Fualnguyen
#LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

In times of heightened market volatility, statements from high-profile figures and large corporations can easily lure retail investors into a dangerous trap: comparing themselves to players who operate under completely different conditions.

Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, currently holds 713,502 BTC and is carrying an unrealized loss of more than $4.5 billion. Thanks to its long-term capital structure, access to financing, and multi-year investment horizon, this level of drawdown does not create immediate liquidation pressure.
Saylor can continue to hold, communicate his thesis, and maintain conviction without being forced to react to short-term price movements. Strategy stated that its financial position remains sound; according to CEO Phong Le, the balance sheet would only face serious debt risk if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and stayed there for 5–6 years. Recent losses are largely accounting losses on paper rather than real cash stress or forced selling, and Michael Saylor believes threats such as quantum computing are still far off and can be mitigated through protocol upgrades.

Similarly, Tom Lee’s Bitmine holds approximately 4.2 million ETH and is currently facing unrealized losses exceeding $7.5 billion. Tom Lee has openly stated that he does not focus on short-term price action, as his strategy is built around long-cycle theses and a level of drawdown tolerance that retail investors simply do not have.
But they are not like us.
Retail investors cannot afford to absorb multi-billion-dollar losses. We operate with personal capital, face direct psychological pressure from market swings, and lack the financial buffers, cheap leverage, and time flexibility available to large institutions. A 30–40% drawdown is often enough to distort decision-making; a 50–60% loss can permanently impair an account within a single cycle.
On-chain data reinforces this contrast. Bitcoin exchange inflows on Binance have risen sharply during recent price weakness, indicating that coins are being moved to exchanges as fear increases -a classic sign of selling pressure from retail and short-term holders. In contrast, exchange outflows have not increased meaningfully, suggesting an absence of aggressive accumulation by large funds or long-term holders at this stage.

This divergence reveals a clear reality: short-term pressure is being borne by retail participants, not by institutions. While companies like Strategy or Bitmine can continue to withstand massive unrealized losses on paper, retail investors do not have the luxury of repeated mistakes.
The real question, then, is not whether Bitcoin or Ethereum will eventually recover. The real question is whether we will still be in the game when they do.
Retail investors must reassess their true position and act accordingly: reduce position size, prioritize risk management, trade with discipline, and accept that institutional strategies are not meant to be copied.

They can afford to hold through billions in losses. We cannot. Different position.
Different rules. Not like us.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

In investing, a manchild is not someone who lacks knowledge, nor someone with limited capital.
A manchild is someone who cannot tolerate prolonged uncertainty ==> who constantly needs the market to validate their emotions on a daily basis.
They may understand technical analysis, read on-chain data, and even memorize past market cycles - yet they fall apart when price fails to move in their favor quickly enough. When the market drops, they buy out of fear of missing the bottom. When price goes sideways for too long, doubt creeps in. And when the market dips again, they are exhausted - right before real opportunity appears.
Manchildren are not eliminated by one violent crash. They are eliminated by time - by psychological erosion, and by repeated decisions driven by emotion rather than discipline. That is why the current market is not for manchildren.

A –50% Drawdown Won’t Kill You. Time Will.
Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, before correcting to the $63,000–$68,000 range—roughly a –50% drawdown.
Historically, this does not qualify as a full-fledged bear market. It is better described as a mid-cycle drawdown. For comparison:
2013–2017: ~–84.5%, recovery ~24 months2017–2020: ~–84%, recovery ~24 months2021–2024: ~–77%, recovery ~16 monthsCurrent cycle: ~–50%, not yet resolved
The real danger here is not the depth of the decline, but the duration of the pain. The market does not need to crash further to do damage ==> it only needs to drag on long enough.

Who Is Selling, and Who Is Buying? On-Chain Data Is Very Clear
Santiment data reveals a structure that is typical of weakening markets:
Whale & shark wallets (10–10,000 BTC): Now hold only 68.04% of total BTC supply, a 9-month low, after selling approximately 81,068 BTC in just 8 days. This suggests that large capital has no urgency to defend price, nor any pressure to reaccumulate yet.Shrimp wallets (<0.01 BTC): In contrast, small retail wallets have increased their holdings to 0.249% of total supply, a 20-month high. The absolute number is small, but the psychological signal is clear: retail continues to buy the dip.
In short, smart money is distributing while retail is trying to stay hopeful ==> a structure that has preceded nearly every bear phase in Bitcoin’s history.
Retail Has Not Capitulated - and That’s the Problem
Indicators such as Net Realized Profit/Loss show that realized losses are increasing, but true capitulation has not yet occurred. Retail participants continue to buy dips, convinced that prices are already “cheap,” and expecting a fast recovery. Historically, durable market bottoms rarely form while the crowd still believes. Markets usually bottom only when:
Confidence is fully erodedBuy-side liquidity dries upAnd the majority of retail participants accept defeat and leave
Until that happens, there is little incentive for smart money to step back in aggressively.

This Is Where Manchildren Get Eliminated
In investing, manchildren tend to:
Break down during prolonged drawdownsDCA emotionally, without proper position sizingConstantly ask “Is this the bottom yet?” instead of “Can I survive this?”Exit the market right before conditions truly improve
Mature investors, by contrast, understand that:
Survival matters more than short-term returnsDoing nothing is also a decisionAnd patience is an edge - not passivity
This cycle does not reward those who buy the most, shout “hold” the loudest, or act the bravest.
It rewards only one group: Those who survive the painful phase. And that is why: The current market is not for manchildren.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermAnalysis #LongTermInvestment

Still on the Table? | Long-Term Investment Analysis 🚀

Ethereum (ETH) has been on fire, with a jaw-dropping 51.8% surge in just the last 30 days — and while bulls are celebrating, top analysts are sending out early warning signals.

On-chain data platform Santiment has thrown a red flag, warning that Ethereum’s social media hype has reached “extreme euphoria” levels — a condition that historically leads to price corrections. But this doesn’t mean the bull run is over just yet. Let’s dive into what’s really happening behind the scenes, and why ETH still holds powerful long-term upside.

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📈 The Rise of Ethereum: From $2,400 to $3,767 in 30 Days!

Over the past month, Ethereum has rallied from the $2,400 zone to a high near $3,767, pushing excitement across social platforms to dangerous highs.

🔹 51.84% gain in just 30 days
🔹 ETH trading at multi-month highs
🔹 Social media mentions skyrocketing

According to Santiment, Ethereum’s social dominance has reached “overhype territory”, signaling the risk of a short-term top. Historically, when everyone on social media starts screaming “to the moon,” the market tends to pull back.

> “When the social dominance of a crypto asset spikes to extreme levels, it usually suggests overconfidence and a crowded trade,” — Santiment

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⚠️ Short-Term Risks: Is a Correction Coming?

Crypto markets are known for euphoric tops followed by sharp pullbacks. Ethereum’s current sentiment mirrors past patterns where excessive hype preceded a dip.

Red Flags:

Extreme social sentiment = high probability of short-term volatility

Analysts fear “crowded trades”, where too many traders pile in too late

Similar warnings have been issued for Bitcoin after its recent ATH above $123,000

That said, we’re not yet at “peak speculation” levels — memecoin mania and retail FOMO haven’t fully kicked in. This means there may still be room for ETH to climb before any major correction hits.

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🧠 Smart Money Moves: Institutional Adoption Driving Long-Term Bullish Case

While short-term volatility may shake out weak hands, long-term fundamentals are stronger than ever.

🔐 Corporate Treasury Adoption:
Firms like SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion Technologies are now holding ETH on their balance sheets, similar to how Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy holds Bitcoin. This shift adds serious credibility and demand to Ethereum’s ecosystem.

💬 Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, says:

> “ETH could outperform Bitcoin in the next 3–6 months due to lower supply and increased adoption.”

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🏁 What’s Next? $9,000 ETH Still in Sight 🚀

According to Cointelegraph analysts, Ethereum still has a strong chance to reach as high as $9,000 during this bull run, fueled by:

Supply squeeze: Most ETH is locked in staking and DeFi

Treasury adoption: Companies are now buying ETH, not just BTC

ETH 2.0 narrative: Lower gas fees and scalability improvements make ETH a long-term bet

Potential ETF buzz: Like Bitcoin ETFs, ETH spot ETFs could be the next wave

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🟢 Final Thoughts: Short-Term Volatility ≠ Long-Term Weakness

While extreme euphoria could trigger a near-term correction, it may also be just a speed bump in a larger, more powerful trend. With strong fundamentals, institutional support, and ongoing network development, Ethereum remains a top long-term investment pick for both retail and smart money.

📌 Long-Term Investors Note:
Any dip from current levels could be a golden buying opportunity for those eyeing Ethereum’s future in the $6,000–$9,000 range.

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🔖 Key Takeaways

✅ ETH up over 51% in 30 days
⚠️ Social media hype at historical highs — potential short-term pullback
🏦 Treasury adoption and low supply support long-term upside
📊 Analysts expect ETH could outperform BTC in next 6 months
🎯 Price target for bull cycle: $9,000

#EthereumNews #CryptoAlert t #LongTermInvestment #noobtoprotrader $ETH