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Chain Syndicate
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Sticky Inflation and the Fed’s Term Limit!The primary driver of the February 2026 crypto selloff isn't found on the blockchain, but in the Federal Reserve's latest economic projections. ​With U.S. policy rates expected to drift toward the low 3% range by year-end, the "Higher for Longer" narrative is keeping liquidity tight. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, preventing the Fed from initiating the aggressive "insurance cuts" the market hoped for. ​With Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring in May 2026, markets are facing policy uncertainty. History shows that risk assets like Bitcoin often enter a period of high volatility during leadership transitions at the central bank. ​The current downturn is putting immense pressure on corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy $MSTR , which recently "scooped up" more $BTC even as ETFs saw a two-week outflow of $1.5 billion. ​We are moving into a "selective" phase of the bull run. The correlation with Gold (0.78) suggests that Bitcoin is currently being treated as a macro hedge rather than a speculative tech play. Expect range-bound trading until the March #FOMC‬⁩ meeting provides a clearer path for global liquidity. #CPIWatch #FederalReserve #RateCutExpectations

Sticky Inflation and the Fed’s Term Limit!

The primary driver of the February 2026 crypto selloff isn't found on the blockchain, but in the Federal Reserve's latest economic projections.
​With U.S. policy rates expected to drift toward the low 3% range by year-end, the "Higher for Longer" narrative is keeping liquidity tight. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, preventing the Fed from initiating the aggressive "insurance cuts" the market hoped for.
​With Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expiring in May 2026, markets are facing policy uncertainty. History shows that risk assets like Bitcoin often enter a period of high volatility during leadership transitions at the central bank.
​The current downturn is putting immense pressure on corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy $MSTR , which recently "scooped up" more $BTC even as ETFs saw a two-week outflow of $1.5 billion.

​We are moving into a "selective" phase of the bull run. The correlation with Gold (0.78) suggests that Bitcoin is currently being treated as a macro hedge rather than a speculative tech play. Expect range-bound trading until the March #FOMC‬⁩ meeting provides a clearer path for global liquidity.
#CPIWatch #FederalReserve #RateCutExpectations
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Ανατιμητική
🚨BREAKING FED VICE CHAIR TO MAKE AN URGENT ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY AT 8:25 AM ET. SOURCES REPORT THEY WILL OFFICIALLY PAUSE RATE CUTS UNTIL 2027. EXPECT HIGH VOLATILITY!! #Fed #RateCutExpectations
🚨BREAKING

FED VICE CHAIR TO MAKE AN URGENT ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY AT 8:25 AM ET.

SOURCES REPORT THEY WILL OFFICIALLY PAUSE RATE CUTS UNTIL 2027.

EXPECT HIGH VOLATILITY!!

#Fed #RateCutExpectations
Gold Compression Near $5K — Volatility Incoming?CPI Softens, Fed Cut Bets Rise — What’s Next for XAU? Gold markets have been volatile over the last few sessions. On Feb 13, Gold sharply dropped to the $4,900 zone, triggering concerns of a deeper correction. Analysts attributed that move to technical + flow factors, not a clear macro shock. Now? Gold has stabilized and is trading near $4,975–$5,030 range. This is no longer panic. This is structure. Current Market Snapshot (Live Context) XAUUSDT (Perp - Binance) • Last Price: ~$4,975–$4,980 • 24H High: ~$5,042 • 24H Low: ~$4,970 • 21-day SMA: ~$4,973 (Immediate dynamic support) • RSI (14-day): ~54 (Neutral momentum) Technically: ✔ 21-day SMA above 50, 100 & 200 SMAs ✔ All major SMAs sloping upward ✔ Medium-term trend remains bullish ✔ Momentum normalized after recent spike This is consolidation inside an uptrend, not structural breakdown. What Triggered the Volatility? The key macro driver: US CPI slowdown January Data: • MoM CPI: +0.2% (vs 0.3% expected) • Annual CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected) • Core CPI: 0.3% (in line) Impact: • Bond yields fell • USD weakened • Fed rate cut bets increased Futures markets now price: • ~68% chance of June rate cut • ~62 bps easing expected this year Soft inflation = supportive for non-yielding assets like Gold. Technical Levels That Matter Measured from: High: ~$5,597 Low: ~$4,401 Key retracement zones: • 50% level → ~$4,999 • 61.8% level → ~$5,141 Currently: Gold is hovering just below the 50% retracement. This area acts as: 🔹 Psychological barrier 🔹 Technical resistance 🔹 Momentum decision zone If price closes firmly above $5,050–$5,100 → continuation likely. If rejected → range trade between $4,970–$5,050. Derivatives Insight: Open Interest: Recently cooled from highs but stabilizing. Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: Accounts leaning long Positions more balanced This tells us: • No extreme leverage build-up yet • No panic liquidation cascade • Market positioning relatively controlled Volatility compression phase in progress. Macro Backdrop Other important context: • Chinese New Year liquidity thinner • US GDP data pending • Geopolitical tensions uncertain • AI-driven capital rotation affecting broader risk sentiment But structurally: Rate cut expectations support gold. USD weakness supports gold. Bond yields declining support gold. Macro alignment is not bearish. Trader Perspective Short-Term Traders: Expect range-bound volatility between $4,970 and $5,100. Watch bond yields + USD index. Swing Traders: As long as price holds above 21-day SMA (~$4,973), bias remains constructive. Position Traders: Medium-term structure intact. 50/100-day SMA alignment remains bullish. Breakdown risk only increases if: Daily close below ~$4,950 with rising yields. So Is the Worst Over? The sharp drop to $4,900 appears more like: ✔ Technical flush ✔ Liquidity sweep ✔ Flow-driven reset Not a macro reversal. Gold is now: Consolidating, Digesting CPI data, Waiting for next catalyst. This is typically how trends pause — not how they end. Conclusion Gold remains structurally bullish but tactically cautious. • Inflation cooling • Fed easing expectations rising • SMAs aligned bullish • RSI neutral • Volatility compressing The next decisive move will depend on: Bond yield direction, USD strength/weakness, Upcoming GDP data, Break above $5,100 resistance Until then: This looks like consolidation within strength. Not collapse. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational purpose only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing. #CPIWatch #FedWatch #RateCutExpectations #BinanceSquareTalks $XAU {future}(XAUUSDT) $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $XAG {future}(XAGUSDT)

Gold Compression Near $5K — Volatility Incoming?

CPI Softens, Fed Cut Bets Rise — What’s Next for XAU?
Gold markets have been volatile over the last few sessions.
On Feb 13, Gold sharply dropped to the $4,900 zone, triggering concerns of a deeper correction. Analysts attributed that move to technical + flow factors, not a clear macro shock.
Now?
Gold has stabilized and is trading near $4,975–$5,030 range.
This is no longer panic. This is structure.
Current Market Snapshot (Live Context)
XAUUSDT (Perp - Binance)
• Last Price: ~$4,975–$4,980
• 24H High: ~$5,042
• 24H Low: ~$4,970
• 21-day SMA: ~$4,973 (Immediate dynamic support)
• RSI (14-day): ~54 (Neutral momentum)
Technically:
✔ 21-day SMA above 50, 100 & 200 SMAs
✔ All major SMAs sloping upward
✔ Medium-term trend remains bullish
✔ Momentum normalized after recent spike
This is consolidation inside an uptrend, not structural breakdown.
What Triggered the Volatility?
The key macro driver:
US CPI slowdown January Data:
• MoM CPI: +0.2% (vs 0.3% expected)
• Annual CPI: 2.4% (vs 2.5% expected)
• Core CPI: 0.3% (in line)
Impact:
• Bond yields fell
• USD weakened
• Fed rate cut bets increased
Futures markets now price:
• ~68% chance of June rate cut
• ~62 bps easing expected this year
Soft inflation = supportive for non-yielding assets like Gold.
Technical Levels That Matter
Measured from:
High: ~$5,597
Low: ~$4,401
Key retracement zones:
• 50% level → ~$4,999
• 61.8% level → ~$5,141
Currently: Gold is hovering just below the 50% retracement.
This area acts as:
🔹 Psychological barrier
🔹 Technical resistance
🔹 Momentum decision zone
If price closes firmly above $5,050–$5,100 → continuation likely. If rejected → range trade between $4,970–$5,050.
Derivatives Insight:
Open Interest: Recently cooled from highs but stabilizing. Top Trader Long/Short Ratio: Accounts leaning long Positions more balanced
This tells us:
• No extreme leverage build-up yet
• No panic liquidation cascade
• Market positioning relatively controlled
Volatility compression phase in progress.
Macro Backdrop
Other important context:
• Chinese New Year liquidity thinner
• US GDP data pending
• Geopolitical tensions uncertain
• AI-driven capital rotation affecting broader risk sentiment
But structurally: Rate cut expectations support gold. USD weakness supports gold. Bond yields declining support gold. Macro alignment is not bearish.
Trader Perspective
Short-Term Traders: Expect range-bound volatility between $4,970 and $5,100. Watch bond yields + USD index.
Swing Traders: As long as price holds above 21-day SMA (~$4,973), bias remains constructive.
Position Traders: Medium-term structure intact. 50/100-day SMA alignment remains bullish.
Breakdown risk only increases if: Daily close below ~$4,950 with rising yields.
So Is the Worst Over?
The sharp drop to $4,900 appears more like:
✔ Technical flush
✔ Liquidity sweep
✔ Flow-driven reset
Not a macro reversal.
Gold is now: Consolidating, Digesting CPI data, Waiting for next catalyst. This is typically how trends pause — not how they end.
Conclusion
Gold remains structurally bullish but tactically cautious.
• Inflation cooling
• Fed easing expectations rising
• SMAs aligned bullish
• RSI neutral
• Volatility compressing
The next decisive move will depend on: Bond yield direction, USD strength/weakness, Upcoming GDP data, Break above $5,100 resistance
Until then: This looks like consolidation within strength. Not collapse.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Educational purpose only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and use proper position sizing.
#CPIWatch #FedWatch #RateCutExpectations #BinanceSquareTalks
$XAU
$BTC
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Binance BiBi:
Hey, that's a fantastic and classic technical analysis question! A breakout on muted volume can be tricky. It's often seen as a warning sign for a potential false breakout, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from buyers. However, it could also imply quiet absorption is happening before a larger expansion. The key is often to watch for confirmation in the following price action! Hope this helps
The Fed’s Lone Wolf? Why Stephen Miran is Calling for a 1.5% Rate Cut Fire sale ​The Federal Reserve is usually a place of "wait and see," but Governor Stephen Miran just threw a wrench into the consensus. While most of the board is preaching caution, Miran is banging the drum for an aggressive retreat from high interest rates. $INIT ​Here’s why his "150 basis point" vision for 2026 is sending shockwaves through Wall Street: ​1. The Bold Math: 1.5% or Bust ​While the median Fed "dot plot" suggests a slow-and-steady approach, Miran is calling for at least 1.5 percentage points in cuts this year. ​His Logic: Inflation has cooled, and he believes the current rates are "punitive" rather than protective. ​The Goal: To get ahead of a cooling labor market before the "soft landing" turns into a hard thump. ​2. A "Supply-Side" Spin ​Miran isn't just worried about prices; he’s looking at the engine of the economy. He argues that by cutting rates now, the Fed can better accommodate a growing supply side. In his view, keeping rates high doesn't just fight inflation—it kills the investment needed to grow the economy. $HOME ​3. The "Lame Duck" Influence? ​The timing is fascinating. Miran’s term technically expired in January, but he’s staying in his seat until a successor is confirmed. This has given him a unique, "unfiltered" platform to challenge the more hawkish members of the FOMC. $ASTER ​"The truth is that pushing out the supply side of the economy still allows for monetary policy to accommodate that." — Stephen Miran ​Is Miran a visionary seeing a recession before anyone else, or is he an outlier pushing for a risky "sugar high" for the markets? Either way, he’s successfully shifted the conversation from "If we cut" to "How deep can we go?" #RateCutExpectations #MonetaryShift #PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine
The Fed’s Lone Wolf? Why Stephen Miran is Calling for a 1.5% Rate Cut Fire sale

​The Federal Reserve is usually a place of "wait and see," but Governor Stephen Miran just threw a wrench into the consensus. While most of the board is preaching caution, Miran is banging the drum for an aggressive retreat from high interest rates. $INIT

​Here’s why his "150 basis point" vision for 2026 is sending shockwaves through Wall Street:

​1. The Bold Math: 1.5% or Bust

​While the median Fed "dot plot" suggests a slow-and-steady approach, Miran is calling for at least 1.5 percentage points in cuts this year.

​His Logic: Inflation has cooled, and he believes the current rates are "punitive" rather than protective.

​The Goal: To get ahead of a cooling labor market before the "soft landing" turns into a hard thump.

​2. A "Supply-Side" Spin

​Miran isn't just worried about prices; he’s looking at the engine of the economy. He argues that by cutting rates now, the Fed can better accommodate a growing supply side. In his view, keeping rates high doesn't just fight inflation—it kills the investment needed to grow the economy. $HOME

​3. The "Lame Duck" Influence?

​The timing is fascinating. Miran’s term technically expired in January, but he’s staying in his seat until a successor is confirmed. This has given him a unique, "unfiltered" platform to challenge the more hawkish members of the FOMC. $ASTER

​"The truth is that pushing out the supply side of the economy still allows for monetary policy to accommodate that." — Stephen Miran

​Is Miran a visionary seeing a recession before anyone else, or is he an outlier pushing for a risky "sugar high" for the markets? Either way, he’s successfully shifted the conversation from "If we cut" to "How deep can we go?"

#RateCutExpectations #MonetaryShift #PEPEBrokeThroughDowntrendLine
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Ανατιμητική
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE (RATE CUTS 2026) The US Federal Reserve has cut rates multiple times over the past year, bringing the benchmark federal funds rate down to about 3.50 % – 3.75 %, the lowest in roughly three years. Recently the Fed held rates steady instead of cutting again at the latest policy meeting — they’re pausing to see real inflation progress. Reuters What Fed officials are squabbling about Some Fed leaders (like Daly) want more cuts because the labor market is weakening and wages aren’t keeping up with prices. Reuters Others (like Governor Lisa Cook) are saying hold your horses until inflation truly heads to the 2 % target, otherwise cuts could backfire. Reuters There's internal division — some Fed folks would’ve liked deeper cuts, others didn’t want any at all. Political pressure factor Politicians like Trump are loudly pushing for cuts and even putting their own nominee in place to make it happen, but economists aren’t sold that artificial intelligence productivity gains justify dramatic cuts. Reuters +1 What markets and forecasts say Banks like J.P. Morgan think no more cuts in 2026 and maybe even a hike later, depending on the economy. realtor.com The debate over how low is “neutral” — the point where rates are neither stimulus nor restraint — is ongoing, meaning policymakers are cautious about overdoing cuts. $USDC #RateCutExpectations
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE (RATE CUTS 2026)

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates multiple times over the past year, bringing the benchmark federal funds rate down to about 3.50 % – 3.75 %, the lowest in roughly three years.

Recently the Fed held rates steady instead of cutting again at the latest policy meeting — they’re pausing to see real inflation progress.
Reuters
What Fed officials are squabbling about
Some Fed leaders (like Daly) want more cuts because the labor market is weakening and wages aren’t keeping up with prices.
Reuters
Others (like Governor Lisa Cook) are saying hold your horses until inflation truly heads to the 2 % target, otherwise cuts could backfire.
Reuters
There's internal division — some Fed folks would’ve liked deeper cuts, others didn’t want any at all.

Political pressure factor
Politicians like Trump are loudly pushing for cuts and even putting their own nominee in place to make it happen, but economists aren’t sold that artificial intelligence productivity gains justify dramatic cuts.
Reuters +1
What markets and forecasts say
Banks like J.P. Morgan think no more cuts in 2026 and maybe even a hike later, depending on the economy.
realtor.com
The debate over how low is “neutral” — the point where rates are neither stimulus nor restraint — is ongoing, meaning policymakers are cautious about overdoing cuts.

$USDC

#RateCutExpectations
The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.5%. This marks the third rate cut this year, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell citing progress in taming inflation and an uncertain economic outlook. #RateCutExpectations ## Key Points - *Rate Cut Expectations*: Analysts anticipate another 25-basis-point cut, with markets pricing in a high probability of this move. - *Quantitative Tightening (QT)*: The Fed might announce an end to QT, potentially offering a buffer for Treasury and impacting market liquidity. - *Future Cuts*: J.P. Morgan Research predicts two more cuts in 2025, followed by one in 2026, depending on economic performance and inflation trends. - *Economic Context*: The US economy shows signs of balance, with slowing job gains and inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target. ## Implications - *Borrowing Costs*: Lower rates may boost stocks and cryptocurrencies, while benefiting borrowers. - *Market Sentiment*: Investors are watching for clarity on future cuts and QT winding down. The Fed's next move will likely depend on incoming economic data and evolving risks. #RateCutExpectations
The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.5%. This marks the third rate cut this year, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell citing progress in taming inflation and an uncertain economic outlook. #RateCutExpectations

## Key Points
- *Rate Cut Expectations*: Analysts anticipate another 25-basis-point cut, with markets pricing in a high probability of this move.
- *Quantitative Tightening (QT)*: The Fed might announce an end to QT, potentially offering a buffer for Treasury and impacting market liquidity.
- *Future Cuts*: J.P. Morgan Research predicts two more cuts in 2025, followed by one in 2026, depending on economic performance and inflation trends.
- *Economic Context*: The US economy shows signs of balance, with slowing job gains and inflation moving toward the Fed's 2% target.

## Implications
- *Borrowing Costs*: Lower rates may boost stocks and cryptocurrencies, while benefiting borrowers.
- *Market Sentiment*: Investors are watching for clarity on future cuts and QT winding down.
The Fed's next move will likely depend on incoming economic data and evolving risks.
#RateCutExpectations
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Ανατιμητική
🇺🇸 FED will cut rates today at 2 PM ET. If they end QT, the market could explode. Liquidity will flood back in, and risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks will rally hard.$BTC $ETH #RateCutExpectations {spot}(BTCUSDT) {spot}(XRPUSDT)
🇺🇸 FED will cut rates today at 2 PM ET.

If they end QT, the market could explode.
Liquidity will flood back in, and risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks will rally hard.$BTC $ETH
#RateCutExpectations
#RateCutExpectations ‏🔴 El presidente estadounidense Donald Trump habla sobre el proceso de selección de un sucesor para Jerome Powell en el cargo de presidente de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., con el final del mandato de este último en mayo próximo ◀ Trump ha presionado mucho este año a Powell, dirigiéndole muchas críticas por no reducir las tasas de interés al mismo ritmo que desea el presidente estadounidense ◀ Se espera que la Reserva Federal reduzca las tasas de interés por segunda vez este año durante su reunión de mañana
#RateCutExpectations

‏🔴 El presidente estadounidense Donald Trump habla sobre el proceso de selección de un sucesor para Jerome Powell en el cargo de presidente de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., con el final del mandato de este último en mayo próximo

◀ Trump ha presionado mucho este año a Powell, dirigiéndole muchas críticas por no reducir las tasas de interés al mismo ritmo que desea el presidente estadounidense

◀ Se espera que la Reserva Federal reduzca las tasas de interés por segunda vez este año durante su reunión de mañana
📣 Headline Post: “All Eyes on the Federal Reserve + Trade Turbulence” 🔍 What’s Happening The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by ~25 basis points at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, bringing the target range to around 3.75 %–4.00 %. At the same time, ongoing tariff pressures (imports, global supply-chain disruptions) are stirring concerns about inflation and growth drag. For example: tariffs may drive up costs for consumers and producers while slowing demand. 📈 Market Implications for the Next Few Days Positive signals: A rate cut would signal a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. That tends to boost risk-assets (equities) and reduce borrowing costs, which could support growth. If the Fed softens its language and signals further cuts, investor sentiment may improve quickly. Caution flags: Markets have high expectations for easing. If the Fed doesn’t confirm a clear path of future cuts, you could see a sell-off or yield spikes. Tariff‐driven inflation and supply-chain risk could muddy the waters: higher costs + slower growth = messy mix for markets. #RateCutExpectations
📣 Headline Post: “All Eyes on the Federal Reserve + Trade Turbulence”



🔍 What’s Happening

The Fed is widely expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by ~25 basis points at its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, bringing the target range to around 3.75 %–4.00 %.

At the same time, ongoing tariff pressures (imports, global supply-chain disruptions) are stirring concerns about inflation and growth drag. For example: tariffs may drive up costs for consumers and producers while slowing demand.


📈 Market Implications for the Next Few Days

Positive signals:

A rate cut would signal a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy. That tends to boost risk-assets (equities) and reduce borrowing costs, which could support growth.

If the Fed softens its language and signals further cuts, investor sentiment may improve quickly.


Caution flags:

Markets have high expectations for easing. If the Fed doesn’t confirm a clear path of future cuts, you could see a sell-off or yield spikes.

Tariff‐driven inflation and supply-chain risk could muddy the waters: higher costs + slower growth = messy mix for markets.
#RateCutExpectations
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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce an interest rate cut today, October 29, 2025, at the conclusion of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This follows a previous rate cut in September 2025, when the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Key details about the rate cut: The announcement of the decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT. The move is anticipated to be a 25 basis point cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. Markets largely have this move priced in, as economic data has indicated a softening labor market. #RateCutExpectations $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce an interest rate cut today, October 29, 2025, at the conclusion of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This follows a previous rate cut in September 2025, when the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.
Key details about the rate cut:
The announcement of the decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
The move is anticipated to be a 25 basis point cut, which would bring the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4.00%.
Markets largely have this move priced in, as economic data has indicated a softening labor market.
#RateCutExpectations $BTC
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