hbar

Hedera (HBAR) was trading below the $0.101 level at the time of writing on Wednesday, after failing to break a key resistance zone over the weekend. While spot price action appears relatively stable, derivatives data suggests that any recovery attempt remains fragile. Declining Open Interest (OI) and a persistently negative funding rate both reflect cautious — if not outright bearish — market positioning.
Derivatives Data Points to Weakening Participation
According to aggregated futures data, HBAR’s Open Interest has declined to approximately $104.58 million, extending a downtrend that began in early January. Notably, this figure is approaching the recent low of $88.89 million recorded on February 6.
A sustained drop in OI typically indicates that traders are closing positions rather than opening new ones. This contraction in participation often accompanies uncertainty and can signal weakening conviction in the prevailing trend. In HBAR’s case, the shrinking OI suggests that market participants are hesitant to aggressively position for a strong upside breakout.
At the same time, OI-weighted funding rate data from Coinglass shows that sentiment in the perpetual futures market has turned negative. The funding rate flipped into negative territory on Monday and fell to around -0.011% on Tuesday.
A negative funding rate means that short-position holders are paying long-position holders — a structure that typically emerges when bearish positioning dominates. This imbalance highlights growing caution among derivatives traders and reinforces the view that confidence in a sustained upside move remains limited.
Price Rejected at Confluence Resistance
From a technical perspective, HBAR faced strong selling pressure near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.105 on Saturday. This level coincides closely with the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern that has been forming since late June, creating a confluence resistance zone.
The rejection at this area underscores its technical importance. As long as price remains below the 50-day EMA and the wedge’s upper boundary, bullish momentum is likely to remain capped.
If downside pressure intensifies, HBAR could retest the weekly support near $0.090. A decisive daily close below this level may open the door for a deeper decline toward the next daily support around $0.072 — aligning with the low established on October 10.
Momentum Indicators Offer Mixed Signals
On the daily timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 51 and gradually drifting toward the neutral 50 level. This suggests that buying momentum is fading. A break below 50 would further confirm weakening bullish strength and potentially reinforce a bearish continuation scenario.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator still maintains a bullish crossover triggered on February 10. This indicates that the broader upward structure has not yet been fully invalidated, leaving room for a possible recovery if buyers regain control.
What Would Shift the Outlook?
For bulls to regain the upper hand, HBAR would need to reclaim and hold above the 50-day EMA at $0.105 with a strong daily close. Such a move could pave the way for a retest of the next weekly resistance around $0.125.
Until then, the combination of declining Open Interest, negative funding rates, and repeated rejection at resistance suggests that the path of least resistance remains uncertain — with risks skewed slightly to the downside in the short term.
Is HBAR building energy for a breakout, or is this a distribution phase before another leg lower? Share your view below — bullish or bearish? 👇
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This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal analysis. It is not investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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