kabosu

Strategy absorbed a massive paper loss from bitcoin’s drawdown, sending its stock lower as Michael Saylor doubled down on long-term conviction and dismissed quantum fears.
This week’s crypto rout is now showing up clearly on corporate balance sheets.
Strategy (MSTR) reported a $12.4 billion net loss in Q4, largely driven by bitcoin’s sharp decline from its October highs. With BTC briefly slipping below $76,000, the company’s average purchase price, Strategy is now sitting on roughly $9 billion in unrealized losses after spending $54.2 billion to build its bitcoin position.
The result sent Strategy’s stock into another leg down. Shares fell more than 17% after earnings, hitting their lowest level in 18 months and leaving the stock down over 70% from last year’s peak. The firm still holds about 713,500 bitcoin, but its equity premium — long central to its strategy of issuing shares to buy more BTC — has largely evaporated.
This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.
Management, however, struck a calm tone. CFO Andrew Kang emphasized that the company is designed to endure extreme volatility, while CEO Phong Le told investors that bitcoin would need to fall to $8,000 and stay there for years before Strategy’s balance sheet faced serious stress. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor echoed that message, calling the company a “digital fortress” and reiterating its long-term commitment to bitcoin.
Subscribe here to get these updates in your email for free
For now, Strategy isn’t signaling any forced selling. But with shares under pressure and the market questioning leveraged bitcoin exposure, Saylor’s conviction is being tested in real time.
Saylor also addressed a growing investor concern: quantum computing. He dismissed quantum threats as “horrible FUD,” arguing they are likely a decade away and would affect the entire financial system, not just bitcoin. He announced a new Bitcoin Security program to help coordinate work on quantum-resistant upgrades, stressing that bitcoin is “upgradable” through global consensus.
For now, Strategy isn’t signaling any forced selling. But with shares under pressure and the market questioning leveraged bitcoin exposure, Saylor’s conviction is being tested in real time.
#strategy
#kabosu
#Wlf
#Manta
#Phyt

McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
After climbing back to $70,841 by 07:00 UTC on Feb. 15 from $65,395 late on Feb. 12, bitcoin was hovering around $68,800 by mid-morning. The broader crypto market was also in the red Monday, with 85 of the top 100 tokens posting losses. Privacy-focused coins monero and zcash were down 10% and 8%, respectively over the past 24 hours.
Healthy Correction is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos,” McGlone wrote. “The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over.”
McGlone pointed to several macro indicators that reflect elevated risk conditions. U.S. stock market capitalization relative to gross domestic product (GDP) has reached its highest level in roughly a century, he noted. At the same time, 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is at its lowest level in about eight years, McGlone added.
He also described the “crypto bubble” as “imploding,” adding that “Trump euphoria” has peaked and is contributing to contagion across markets. Meanwhile, gold and silver are “grabbing alpha” at a pace last seen about half a century ago, with rising volatility that he said could “trickle up” into equities.
McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 for scaling, with the S&P 500. As of Feb. 13, both were hovering below 7,000 on his graphic. He said that “volatile and beta-dependent” bitcoin is unlikely to stay above that level if broader equity beta weakens.
The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500, equivalent to roughly $56,000 for bitcoin under his scaling, as an initial “normal reversion” level. Beyond that, part of his base case calls for bitcoin to revert toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in the U.S. stock market.
McGlone’s outlook splits opinion
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam and a market analyst, told CoinDesk that McGlone’s thesis assumes market extremes must resolve through collapse and that bitcoin’s equity beta g
That’s false equivalence and single-path bias,” Fernandes said. “Markets can also resolve excess through time, rotation, or inflation erosion. A macro slowdown could mean consolidation or a $40,000 to $50,000 reset, not a systemic unwind to $10,000.”
Fernandes added that a move toward $10,000 would likely require a true systemic event, including sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown.
That implies recession plus financial stress, not just slower growth,” he said. “Absent a credit shock or policy mistake that drains global liquidity, that kind of collapse remains a low-probability tail risk.”
#Bitcoin
#Kabosu
#Coinaute
#Megadrop
#QODA

DeFi Education Fund says developers of non-custodial protocols should not be regulated as intermediaries under the U.K.’s proposed crypto regime.
Control should be the determinative factor” of regulatory scope, DEF said, warning that software developers could otherwise be swept into intermediary-style obligations despite lacking custody or transactional authority.
The submission focuses on an area of the consultation which considers how decentralized finance (DeFi) arrangements should be treated under the U.K.’s emerging crypto regime. DEF supports the FCA’s control-based approach in principle but says it must be tied to concrete operational powers, such as the ability to initiate or block transactions, modify protocol parameters or exclude users.
DEF is an organization focused on informing policymakers and regulators about the benefits of DeFi and has been one of the prominent lobby groups on the road to crypto regulatory frameworks being established in Washington in recent years.
The group also challenged the FCA’s framing of DeFi-specific risks, arguing that cybersecurity vulnerabilities are not unique to blockchain systems and that public blockchains offer transparency advantages in combating illicit finance.
Applying prudential, reporting and platform access requirements designed for centralized trading platforms to non-custodial, automated protocols would be “ill-suited,” DEF said.
The FCA is seeking to bring a broad range of crypto activities within its regulatory perimeter as the U.K. moves toward a comprehensive digital asset framework.
#ZAlB
#FlRFIOW
#Coincap
#Solana
#Kabosu