*WARNING*
The U.S. just printed the most dangerous GDP report in years.
Q4 GDP came in today at 1.4%.
Expectations were 3%.
That’s a huge decline from the 4.4% we printed in Q3.
And somehow nobody is talking about how dangerous this is.
Now here’s what makes this even scarier:
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, came in hotter than expected.
2.9% year over year vs 2.8% forecast. Monthly prices jumped 0.4% when consensus was 0.3%.
Core PCE? Same thing. Beat expectations.
The economy is slowing AND prices are rising at the same time.
Quick reminder of what that’s called: stagflation.
The last time we dealt with REAL stagflation was the 1970s. It took Paul Volcker hiking rates to 20% to kill it.
For context, the economy only added about 15,000 jobs per month in 2025.
You can’t run an economy on 15,000 jobs a month.
Now the Fed is completely trapped…
Cut rates? Inflation explodes higher.
Hold rates? The economy keeps breaking down.
There is no clean exit here.
The next few weeks are going to be critical. I’ll keep you updated.
I’ve been studying macro for over 20 years, and I’ve called every major market tops and bottoms of the last decade.
When I make a new move in the market, I’ll say it here publicly like I always do.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.
#US #GDP