TAO — Structure Is Shifting, But Conviction Isn’t There Yet
$TAO is attempting something important here — a potential structure shift after a prolonged downtrend. But while price action is improving on lower timeframes, the broader picture still demands patience.
This is not the moment to flip aggressively bullish. It’s the moment to observe how price behaves at key levels.
1. Early Signs of a Structure Attempt
After a long sequence of lower highs and lower lows, price is finally trying to interrupt that bearish rhythm. This is the first requirement for any meaningful reversal — but it’s only a condition, not confirmation.
2. Lower Timeframes Have Flipped Bullish
On LTFs, momentum has clearly turned:
Expansion candles
Rising volume
Responsive buying off local lows
This tells us buyers are active — but activity alone doesn’t equal commitment.
3. Mid-Timeframe Remains Corrective
Zooming out, nothing has structurally changed yet. Price is still trading below major resistance clusters, keeping the move firmly in corrective territory for now.
4. Liquidity Is Heavier Above
Current positioning shows more liquidity resting above price than below, increasing the probability of an upside sweep before the market makes any real structural decision.
This favors continuation into resistance — not necessarily through it.
5. RSI Context Matters
On the 4H timeframe, RSI is pushing toward overbought levels.
There’s no clear bearish divergence yet, but upside from here is becoming more fragile unless structure confirms.
6. Volume Feels Reactive, Not Accumulative
This is a key detail. Volume looks more like response buying than long-term accumulation. Buyers are defending levels — not pressing aggressively with conviction (yet).
7. Key Level to Hold
If price holds above the last 4H higher low, momentum can extend toward the 200–210 liquidity zone.
That area is critical — expect reactions, not clean acceptance.
8. Failure Scenario
If price fails to hold the breakout level, this move likely resolves as:
Just another pullback inside a broader bearish structure.
No trend reversal. No regime change.
Bottom Line
This is a monitoring phase, not a FOMO phase.
Structure is trying to shift.
Liquidity favors a push higher.
But conviction is still missing.
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