Crypto markets move in cycles. We all know that, at least intellectually. Still, living through the red weeks feels very different from studying them on a chart.

Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around the $69,000 to $70,000 range after dipping toward the low $60,000s earlier this month. That’s a long way from the euphoric highs above $120,000 in 2025. And major altcoins like Solana and XRP are down roughly 40 to 45 percent year to date in many cases.

On paper, it looks like a normal correction.

In real life, it feels heavier.

You open your portfolio. You hesitate. You tell yourself you’re “long term,” but your stomach still tightens when another support level gets tested. I think every cycle has that moment where conviction quietly wrestles with doubt.

And yet, historically, this is exactly how new rallies are born.

What Crypto Market Cycles Really Feel Like

We often describe cycles in clean phases:

Accumulation

Bull market

Distribution

Bear market

These phases tend to align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving rhythm. The April 2024 halving fueled expectations of a 2025 peak and a 2026 cooldown. That “bear leg” seems to be unfolding now, with ETF outflows earlier this year, leverage getting flushed, and macro pressure like a strong USD weighing on risk assets.

Why XRP Feels Different This Time

XRP is trading around $1.45 to $1.50. That’s far below its 2018 high near $3.65 and the 2025 peak around $3.66, but also miles above the brutal sub-$0.20 levels of past downturns.

That perspective matters.

If you zoom out, XRP isn’t a broken asset. It’s an asset in a drawdown within a larger structural uptrend. But zooming out is hard when you’re watching intraday candles.

There’s also something else. XRP has always carried a narrative beyond speculation. Its connection to Ripple and cross-border payments gives holders a kind of utility-based conviction. It’s not just “number go up.” It’s the idea of faster, cheaper global transfers, tokenized assets, stablecoin rails like RLUSD, and institutional infrastructure.

The 2026 Outlook: Hope, Caution, and Reality

Analysts are mixed, but slowly leaning optimistic.

Conservative estimates place XRP in the $2 to $4 range without major catalysts. That assumes ETF inflows stabilize and adoption continues steadily.

Bullish scenarios push toward $5 to $8 if spot XRP ETFs see strong inflows, regulatory clarity improves, and real-world usage expands. More aggressive projections depend on large-scale institutional adoption, especially in cross-border settlements and tokenized real-world assets.

But let’s be honest.

Forecasts are easy in theory. Holding through volatility is the real test.

Key drivers to watch:

Institutional ETF inflows

Regulatory clarity for Ripple

Expansion into RWAs and payments

A broader recovery led by Bitcoin

XRP tends to amplify Bitcoin’s moves during altseason. If BTC regains strong upward momentum, XRP historically doesn’t move quietly.

Cycles do not disappear. They evolve.

If 2026 becomes the year XRP transitions from regulatory overhang to infrastructure growth, this period could look obvious in hindsight. But right now, it doesn’t feel obvious. It feels uncertain. It feels fragile.

And maybe that’s the point.

So what’s your move here?

Are you stacking through the noise, or waiting for confirmation before stepping back in?

Curious to hear how others are navigating this phase.