🚨 THIS SETUP HAS ENDED IN A DUMP EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

Look at the S&P 500 versus the put/call ratio.

Same spike.
Same complacency.
Same outcome.

Jan 2024 — P/C 1.2 → S&P DUMP
Apr 2024 — P/C 1.2 → S&P DUMP
Aug 2024 — P/C 1.1 → S&P DUMP
Apr 2025 — P/C 1.1 → S&P DUMP

Not once.

Not twice.

Every single time.

And now?

The put/call ratio is back near ~1.1, hovering at the highest levels since the so-called “Liberation Day” crash…

But the S&P is still flat.

That divergence is the tell.

Here’s what most people miss.

When the put/call ratio spikes, it means traders are loading up on puts — aggressively.

And for every put buyer, there’s a seller.

That seller is usually dealers and market makers.

When dealers sell puts, they’re effectively short downside protection.

And when you’re short puts, your hedge is simple:

👉 You sell S&P exposure.

Futures. ETFs. Index baskets. Whatever is liquid.

So the mechanical flow looks like this:

More puts bought
→ Dealers get shorter gamma
→ Dealers sell S&P to hedge
→ Market loses structural support
→ Price starts to roll

If price slips?

They have to sell more.

That’s how you get a feedback loop.

Right now the ratio is pressing the highest level since the last volatility shock.

But price hasn’t reacted — yet.

That tension doesn’t usually resolve upward.

If the ratio stays elevated, hedging pressure stays in place.

If the S&P starts to crack, dealer flows can accelerate the move.

That’s not emotion.

That’s positioning math.

I’ve studied macro positioning and flow dynamics for over a decade and tracked nearly every major inflection over the last cycle — including the October BTC ATH.

When positioning and price diverge like this, I pay attention.

Follow and turn notifications on.

Because when this unwinds, the headlines will come after the move — not before it.