🚨 US WANTS TO CUT IRANIAN OIL TO CHINA
Maximum pressure is back on the table.
• US + Israel aligned on tightening Iran oil flows
• Target = Iranian exports to China
• Iran ships 1.5 mb/d, mostly to China
• Much moves via shadow fleets
Why it matters?
• China is Iran’s lifeline buyer
• Cutting that flow hits Tehran’s revenue
• Enforcement risk rises for traders + insurers
This is supply risk.
If enforcement intensifies:
• Iranian barrels disappear from “visible” market
• China refiners scramble for alternatives
• Heavy crude differentials tighten
• Oil risk premium returns
The market sees surplus.
Policy can erase barrels overnight.
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