📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) REPORT – UPDATE 2026-02-15
The data shows the correlation between FGI and Win Rate remains low (r ~ -0.20). This reinforces that FGI is not a tool for predicting price direction or timing entries, but it is highly useful for quantifying positioning risk. In practice, trading performance tends to deteriorate when sentiment reaches extreme euphoria—making it more of an early risk-warning signal than an opportunity to expand profits.
Below is a reference summary of Win Rate (WR), minimum break-even R:R, and sample size (n) by sentiment zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.6% • R:R=1:1.19 • n=138
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 46.8% • R:R=1:1.14 • n=175
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 48.6% • R:R=1:1.06 • n=40
Share of days with performance above the average baseline (45.7%) by zone:
🤑 Extreme Greed: 12.0%
🤤 Greed: 40.0%
😐 Neutral: 45.7%
😨 Fear: 56.6%
😱 Extreme Fear: 62.5%
➤ For scalpers, FGI can be used as a practical guide to adjust profit expectations:
📈 When FGI is high, aim for higher profit targets to maintain a sufficiently large R:R and compensate for the drop in win rate.
📉 When FGI is low, consider lowering profit targets to increase turnover speed and realize profits more easily.