$BTC Bear Markets: The Pattern of Maximum Pain
Every major Bitcoin bear cycle follows the same script:
• Blow-off top
• Liquidity vacuum
• –70% to –85% drawdown
• Final capitulation
• Base → new cycle
2011: –93% crash
2013–15: Long compression, lower highs
2018: –80% deleveraging
2022: –77% despite institutions
Now look at 2025+.
This drawdown is shallower than history suggests.
Volatility is compressed.
But true capitulation hasn’t arrived.
So what’s happening?
Either:
1. Bitcoin is maturing and volatility is shrinking
or
2. The cycle reset isn’t finished yet
History says bottoms form after exhaustion, not headlines.
The real question isn’t if there’s pain.
It’s whether this cycle rewrites the script or just delays it.
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