🚨 THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE — SILVER’S MATH IS BREAKING

In 24 hours, silver hits a moment where the numbers stop making sense.

$2.3B+ in open interest into COMEX options expiry

Record delivery requests in Shanghai

~340 metric tons reportedly standing for delivery

That’s not normal background noise.

That’s stress.

🏦 The Pressure Point: Paper vs Physical

On the U.S. side, contracts trade through the COMEX.

In China, physical demand flows through the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Here’s where it gets uncomfortable:

Registered COMEX silver inventories ≈ tens of millions of ounces

Paper claims per physical ounce? Often cited at double-digit multiples

Reported price gap: Shanghai physical far above COMEX futures

In a frictionless market, that spread shouldn’t last.

Arbitrage desks would buy the cheap venue, deliver into the expensive one, and close the gap.

If the spread persists, one of three things is happening:

1️⃣ Logistics constraints
2️⃣ Capital / export controls
3️⃣ Physical tightness at size

None of those are “business as usual.”

📉 When Liquidity Thins, Volatility Explodes

Into major options expiry, positioning matters more than headlines.

If open interest is concentrated:

Dealers hedge

Margins rise

Weak hands get forced out

Price accelerates into liquidity pockets

That’s mechanics, not drama.

But when physical demand spikes at the same time paper leverage is elevated, the system gets fragile.

⚖️ Does This Mean Default? Not Necessarily.

It means stress.

It means the paper market and the physical market are pulling in different directions.

Most of the time, paper wins short term.

But when confidence cracks, physical flows start setting the tone.

I’m not here to hype fear.

I’m saying this setup is rare.

Extreme positioning.
Large expiry.
Wide cross-market spread.

Those ingredients don’t usually produce calm outcomes.

If the spread closes cleanly, stress fades.

If it widens further, something bigger is unfolding.

Either way — this is not a normal week in silver.