Bitcoin’s current market structure increasingly resembles the early stages of a bear market rather than a routine correction, according to new analysis from CryptoQuant.
The firm highlights a key on-chain metric that has historically marked periods of structural weakness. Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has dropped back toward the 0.92–0.94 zone — a level that historically marked major bear market stress points.
They mentioned, that In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss.
Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset.
The Adjusted SOPR measures whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at profit or loss. When the indicator drops below 1, it signals that, on average, holders are realizing losses — a behavioral shift that typically emerges during structural downtrends. According to CryptoQuant, the return to the 0.92–0.94 range suggests the market is entering a phase of sustained stress rather than experiencing a short-term pullback.
Cryptoquant added, that At the moment, we are entering stress territory — but not yet at extreme capitulation levels. This distinction is crucial. In previous cycles, confirmed bear-market bottoms formed only after deeper compression and widespread capitulation. Current levels indicate deterioration, but not yet full exhaustion of selling pressure.
ETF Flows Show Defensive Positioning
Spot Bitcoin ETF data reflects a similar tone. On February 13, Daily Total Net Inflow recorded $15.20 million. While the figure remains positive, it does not signal strong institutional accumulation. Instead, flows appear muted — suggesting cautious positioning rather than aggressive capital deployment. In other words, capital has not fled the market — but it is not stepping in decisively either.
Sentiment at Extreme Fear
Market sentiment further supports the stress narrative. The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 12, categorized as Extreme Fear.
Last week, the index dropped to 8 — levels typically observed during heavy corrective phases. Although extreme fear can coincide with local bottoms, it more often aligns with deeper structural resets rather than immediate reversals.
According to CryptoQuant, aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration and increasing market stress. The data suggests the market may be transitioning toward bear-market conditions rather than simply undergoing a temporary dip.
ETF inflows remain positive but subdued, and sentiment has entered extreme fear territory. However, historical patterns indicate that a durable bottom may require deeper compression before a sustainable reversal forms. At this stage, the signals point to structural weakening — not recovery.