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CryptoQuant Quicktake
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Bitcoin’s Whale Divide: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Control
Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, known as whales, currently hold 4.483M BTC as of February 16, 2026.
Distribution:
STH Whales (New Whales) (-155 days holding BTC): 1.287M BTC → 28.7%
LTH Whales (Old Whales) (+155 days holding BTC): 3.196M BTC → 71.3%
Although STH whales have shown recent balance increases based on monthly metrics, structural dominance remains with LTH whales, which control over 70% of this cohort’s supply.
The decisive element emerges when analyzing the Realized Price (on-chain average cost basis) of each group:
Realized Price STH whales: $88,494
Realized Price LTH whales: $41,626
Current price: $68,795
This implies that short-term whales are sitting on roughly a -22% unrealized loss, while long-term whales maintain a profit margin near +65%.
The asymmetry is clear: recent capital is under pressure, while structural capital retains a wide profitability cushion.
Risk emerges when price declines sharply; in that context, STH whales tend to capitulate and realize losses, as seen in the latest Realized Profits chart.
These realized losses among STH whales have increased since Bitcoin’s last ATH in October. As price corrected from those highs, newer capital began materializing deeper losses, generating increasingly negative spikes.
Historically, similar configurations (2019 and 2022) reflected internal redistribution phases, where supply migrated from lower-conviction holders toward resilient entities.
The critical variable is the LTH Realized Price ($41.6K): as long as price remains above that level, structural capitulation cannot be declared. Only a sustained breakdown below it would imply that even the most resilient capital is entering macro stress.
What we are observing is not structural capitulation, but a redistribution of BTC from recent capital toward higher-conviction holders. As long as $41.6K holds, the market is transferring conviction, not destroying it.
Written by Carmelo_Alemán
Distribution:
STH Whales (New Whales) (-155 days holding BTC): 1.287M BTC → 28.7%
LTH Whales (Old Whales) (+155 days holding BTC): 3.196M BTC → 71.3%
Although STH whales have shown recent balance increases based on monthly metrics, structural dominance remains with LTH whales, which control over 70% of this cohort’s supply.
The decisive element emerges when analyzing the Realized Price (on-chain average cost basis) of each group:
Realized Price STH whales: $88,494
Realized Price LTH whales: $41,626
Current price: $68,795
This implies that short-term whales are sitting on roughly a -22% unrealized loss, while long-term whales maintain a profit margin near +65%.
The asymmetry is clear: recent capital is under pressure, while structural capital retains a wide profitability cushion.
Risk emerges when price declines sharply; in that context, STH whales tend to capitulate and realize losses, as seen in the latest Realized Profits chart.
These realized losses among STH whales have increased since Bitcoin’s last ATH in October. As price corrected from those highs, newer capital began materializing deeper losses, generating increasingly negative spikes.
Historically, similar configurations (2019 and 2022) reflected internal redistribution phases, where supply migrated from lower-conviction holders toward resilient entities.
The critical variable is the LTH Realized Price ($41.6K): as long as price remains above that level, structural capitulation cannot be declared. Only a sustained breakdown below it would imply that even the most resilient capital is entering macro stress.
What we are observing is not structural capitulation, but a redistribution of BTC from recent capital toward higher-conviction holders. As long as $41.6K holds, the market is transferring conviction, not destroying it.
Written by Carmelo_Alemán
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