Market Summary – Outlook Ahead of U.S. Data
Macro catalysts:
• FOMC minutes (Feb 18) will be watched for any shift in tone on inflation and policy expectations. A more cautious or hawkish message could lift yields and strengthen the dollar, while dovish clues would support risk assets.
• Core PCE (Feb 20) — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — is forecast at +0.3% m/m and ~3.0% y/y, key for near-term rate cut pricing.
• Q4 U.S. GDP advance (also Feb 20) expected at ~2.8%, offering context on growth momentum.
Market sentiment & volatility:
• U.S. equities, especially tech, pulled back with rising volatility as traders brace for data risk. Nasdaq weakness reflects pressure on growth stocks.
Technicals
Equities & Risk Assets
• Nasdaq: Downside pressure persists; needs clear break above resistance to flip trend.
Safe haven & FX
• Gold: Consolidating with strong swings; sensitive to real yields and inflation cues — softer data could boost upside.
• EUR/USD: Holding phases of strength; short-term bullish biases may persist, but volatility near data events remains high.
Trading Strategy Points
• Expect expanded ranges and higher volatility into FOMC minutes and PCE print.
• Lower position sizing and tight stops recommended ahead of releases to manage whipsaw risk.
• Market remains sensitive to inflation surprises and Fed communication nuances.
#FOMC #Macro #NASDAQ #GOLD #Fed
