Non-farm payrolls cold shock of 20,000! The US may trigger recession alarms in 2026, and the AI frenzy cannot hide the real economy's winter. Little puppy pup pies, pay attention.
Non-farm payrolls only increased by 50,000, falling short of expectations; by the end of 2026, the US may trigger the Sam rule recession alarms! Song Xuetao from Guojin Securities bluntly stated that the US economy is falling into extreme division—AI is thriving, while the real economy is freezing cold, and the gap between hot and cold is widening.
In the second half of 2025, the US unemployment rate continues to rise, non-farm data is weakening, and institutions predict that by the end of 2026, the unemployment rate may exceed 4.7%, approaching the Sam rule warning line. On one side, tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions into AI, with continuous investments from OpenAI, Nvidia, etc., and recruitment in the AI sector is booming; on the other side, small and medium-sized enterprises are under pressure, consumer spending is weak, and traditional industries are laying off workers, creating a stark contrast in the job market.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and fiscal easing have caused funds to flow into the stock market and AI sectors, while ordinary people are still caught in high rents and high prices, making income distribution imbalances difficult to resolve. The lagging effects of Trump's tariffs will erupt in the first half of 2026, further exacerbating inflationary pressures. The AI narrative relies entirely on liquidity support; by 2026, companies must deliver profits, and low-quality AI targets may face restructuring, with rapid accumulation of bubble risks.
The 2026 US midterm elections will be the biggest variable, and policy uncertainty will directly impact market confidence. Stagflation risks are already rising: economic growth is weak, unemployment rates are high, and inflation remains elevated, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma of fearing inflation with interest rate cuts and fearing recession with tightening.