XRP is facing a critical technical and on-chain standoff as of February 17, 2026. The token has dropped nearly 13% since being rejected at the $1.67 resistance level, currently trading precariously near the lower boundary of a bearish "rising wedge" pattern. On-chain data reveals a massive struggle between two major investor cohorts: while XRP whales have offloaded approximately 50 million tokens ($75 million) during the recent rally attempt, long-term holders are desperately trying to absorb this supply, increasing their positions by 17%. If the $1.26 cost-basis support fails to hold, the breakdown of the wedge could accelerate a slide toward the psychological $1.00 mark.
Technical Fragility: The Rising Wedge and Hidden Divergence
XRP's price structure has turned decisively bearish following a failure to maintain its mid-February momentum.
The Rising Wedge: Since early February, XRP has been carving out a rising wedge a bearish pattern that usually signals a trend exhaustion. A breakdown below the current lower trendline would project a 26% correction, putting the $1.00 target in focus.
Hidden Bearish Divergence: On the 12-hour chart, the RSI formed a higher high while the price made a lower high. This divergence warned that the recent rally was losing underlying strength, ultimately leading to the sharp rejection at $1.67.
The $1.67 Rejection: The candle formed a long upper wick at $1.67, confirming that aggressive sellers are defending the overhead resistance and preventing any meaningful breakout.
Whale vs. HODLer: The 50 Million XRP Sell-Off
The rejection at $1.67 was fueled by a coordinated exit from XRP’s largest wallet holders.
Whale Distribution: Wallets holding between 10 million and 1 billion XRP collectively sold 50 million XRP ($75 million) during the latest rally attempt. This influx of supply has overwhelmed the current market demand.
HODLer Defense: Long-term holders have attempted to "buy the dip," increasing their net position from 127 million to 150 million XRP. However, this 17% rise is still 55% lower than the record-breaking accumulation seen on February 1, suggesting that current buyer conviction is not yet strong enough to flip the trend.
The Path to $1: Critical Support Floors
XRP is now testing its "last line of defense" as it approaches a massive concentration of buyer cost basis.
The $1.26 Support Wall: Approximately 442 million XRP were accumulated between $1.27 and $1.28. This represents the most significant support zone on the chart; if bulls fail to defend this level, it would push nearly half a billion coins into unrealized losses, likely triggering a cascade of panic selling.
Downside Targets: A failure at $1.26 would target $1.16 and eventually $1.06, completing the rising wedge breakdown and potentially touching the $1.00 level.
Recovery Conditions: To invalidate the bearish outlook, XRP must first reclaim $1.48 and achieve a sustained close above $1.67.
Essential Financial Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of a potential XRP drop to $1 and the 50 million token whale sell-off are based on technical chart patterns and on-chain data as of February 17, 2026. Patterns like "rising wedges" and "bearish divergences" are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price performance. XRP remains an extremely volatile asset; the $1.53 valuation is subject to rapid shifts, and a breakdown below the $1.26 support could lead to significant capital loss. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making significant investment decisions in Ripple or XRP.
Do you think the "HODLers" can absorb the 50M whale sell-off, or is the $1.26 support wall about to crumble?