Here's a rewritten version in my own words — same casual, straight-talk vibe, same structure and tune, but fresh phrasing so it doesn't look copy-pasted from X. Ready for Square:
**When the Crypto Market Actually Bottoms (real talk)**
Right now tons of people are convinced Bitcoin already put in the cycle low at $60K.
They're probably wrong.
That was most likely just a mid-cycle dip / local bottom, not the final flush.
Here's what actually has to line up before we get the real macro bottom.
**LIQUIDITY — still the kingmaker**
Every big crypto bottom in history kicked off when US liquidity flipped from shrinking to growing again. We're not there yet — YoY liquidity is still negative. Money is literally being sucked out of the system.
When liquidity is draining:
- Crypto bleeds first
- Stocks follow
- Risk-on stuff stays crushed
That's exactly the tape we're watching.
Whatever juice the Fed is providing right now isn't enough to flip sentiment bullish. That's also why you're seeing:
- corporate bankruptcies spiking
- consumer debt defaults climbing
- general economic pressure building
No positive liquidity turn = no proper market bottom. Simple.
**Mayer Multiple — oversold, but not capitulation territory**
this thing measures how far BTC is from its long-term moving average. Every past cycle bottom saw it crash below 0.6. Right now? Hovering ~0.67.
Translation: yeah it's oversold… but nowhere near the panic extremes that marked previous cycle lows. Temporary bottom vibes, not final-bottom vibes.
**Long-Term Holder Realized Price — the most reliable floor**
This tracks the average cost basis of people who haven't sold in ages. Historically BTC bottoms form right around (or slightly below) this level.
Current LTH realized price ≈ $41K.
Bitcoin is miles away from it.
Huge hint: the real bottom zone probably lives near where long-term hands are actually in the red.
**Mining electrical cost floor**
Miners' all-in power cost is sitting ~$57.5K right now.
But in proper bear markets this number usually drops 15–20% as inefficient rigs get shut off.
If history repeats → electrical floor lands around $45–46K.
When several of these on-chain + fundamental floors start clustering in the same area… that's your high-conviction bottom zone.
**Technical + institutional defense line**
Pure price action wise, $45K–$50K has been the strongest demand pocket this entire cycle:
- Spot ETFs got approved in/around there
- August 2024 crash bottomed there
- Institutions loaded up hard
- Whale accumulation was loudest here
Big money defends zones where they have the most skin in the game.
**This cycle is weird AF**
Key differences vs past cycles:
- BTC made ATH *before* halving (first time ever)
- Post-halving Q4 was straight red instead of the usual pump
- Drop started way earlier than "script"
- Many alts topped before BTC even hit its peak
Bottom line: this cycle is front-running expectations hard. So the bottom timing might front-run the classic narrative too.
**So… actual bottom window?**
Most are still eyeing a textbook Q4 capitulation.
But with the way this cycle is moving, it could print earlier.
Best guess window → August through September.
Markets love to screw the consensus crowd. Price *and* time could bottom sooner than the herd is positioned for.
**Bottom psychology 101**
If we tag $45K–$48K, the $30K, $25K, $20K doomsday calls are gonna flood timelines — just like late 2022 when $16K triggered "$10K… $8K… $5K" panic.
Spoiler: those never printed. Markets trap bulls *and* bears.
**Putting it all together**
- Liquidity still shrinking
- On-chain bottom signals not fully triggered
- Mining floor lower
- Institutional defense lower
- Cycle already front-running everything
$60K was likely just the local low.
Real cycle bottom probably lives below $50K — most likely in that late-summer / early-fall window when liquidity finally turns and everything converges.
That's when the market fully washes out… and sets up for the next big leg higher.
Thoughts? Where do you think we print the low? 👀
