$我踏马来了

Trade Bias: SHORT 📉

The High-Timeframe Narrative (4H/1D):

We broke down hard from that 0.028 zone. Price is now auctioning firmly below all major EMAs (50, 100, 200). This isn't a dip; it’s a structural breakdown. The old range low at 0.024 is now resistance. Any bounce into that zone is a gift, not a reversal. The 4H candles show no demand, just low-volume crabs—smart money isn’t buying this yet.

The Lower-Timeframe Execution (1H/15m):

We’re consolidating sideways between 0.0201 and 0.0205. This is the breather before the breakdown. Look at the order book on the last few slides: Bid depth is getting eaten, Ask walls are building. StochRSI on the 1H is showing a dead cat bounce attempt, but momentum (MACD) is still flatlining below zero. We need to see price touch that old support-turned-resistance zone.

Market Psychology:

Retail sees a 25% discount and screams "BUY THE DIP." They are fighting the trend. Meanwhile, funding has turned slightly negative—perps are no longer expensive to hold, meaning the exit liquidity for shorts is drying up. The trap is set for those buying the "cheap" coin while the market prepares to sweep the lows.

The Setup (Limit Short):

· Entry Zone: 0.02045 - 0.02065 🔴

· Why? This is the retest of the breakdown level from the 1H consolidation and the 9 EMA. If we can't close above 0.0208, we are still bearish.

· Stop Loss: 0.02115 📍

· Why? A clean close above this recent swing high invalidates the immediate downtrend and suggests the consolidation is turning into a range.

· Take Profit 1: 0.01980 🟢 (Sweep of yesterday's low)

· Take Profit 2: 0.01850 🟢 (Next major liquidity pool)

· Risk-to-Reward: 1 : 3.2

Invalidation:

If price reclaims 0.02120 and holds, I’m wrong. The structure would flip from bearish consolidation to accumulation. Until then, I’m selling the rips.

🔥 Key Takeaway: Don't confuse a slow bleed with accumulation. We are magnetized towards the lows until we see volume behind a push through 0.022. Stay short until that happens.