Today, Tuesday 17 February 2026, the United States and Iran are scheduled to hold indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman.
This is not just political news. It is a direct volatility catalyst for energy, metals, equities, and major digital assets like $BTC and the wider crypto market.
As traders, this is the type of event you prepare for, not react to.
Why This Matters
The talks focus on Iran’s nuclear program and potential sanctions relief.
The key market question:
Will Iranian oil supply return to global markets or remain restricted?
That outcome can quickly shift positioning across oil, inflation expectations, safe haven assets, equities, and crypto markets. BTC and $ETH often respond to changes in liquidity conditions and overall risk sentiment.
Scenario 1: If Negotiations Fail
If talks break down:
Supply concerns re emerge
Oil prices may price in geopolitical risk
Energy volatility increases
Inflation expectations rise
Risk assets including equities and crypto may face short term pressure
Assets likely to react:
Oil upside volatility
Gold and Silver safe haven demand
Equities risk off tone
BTC and ETH possible downside volatility
Scenario 2: If Negotiations Are Positive
If progress or a framework update is announced:
Iranian supply concerns ease
Oil could retrace lower
Commodity volatility cools
Inflation expectations soften
Risk assets may see relief buying
Assets likely to react:
Oil downside pressure
Gold and Silver possible pullback
Equities relief rally potential
BTC and ETH potential upside momentum
Key Assets to Monitor
Oil
Gold
Silver
BTC and ETH: monitor intraday structure and liquidity zones relative to broader sentiment
These serve as pre event reference levels. Prepared traders define scenarios in advance and manage risk accordingly.
This is not about predicting the outcome.
It is about preparing for volatility.
Events like this can trigger liquidity sweeps, fast breakouts, sharp reversals, and heightened volatility across leveraged markets.
Plan both sides. Mark your levels. Let the market confirm the move.