1) Fear is extreme, but the real bottom may not be in yet
Fear & Greed Index = 8 (extreme fear)
Historically, bottoms happen when even long-term holders are losing money.
Right now, long-term holders are STILL in profit → meaning cycle pain isn’t fully finished.
2) Retail is still buying dips (this is important)
Normally, retail disappears during true capitulation.
But they’re still buying $BTC and $ETH .
👉 This suggests conviction hasn’t fully broken yet, so the market may need one more flush.
3) $10K Bitcoin is possible — but not guaranteed
If stocks crash hard and liquidity dries up, BTC could fall much lower.
But markets don’t crash just from doom predictions — positioning matters more.
4) MVRV & On-chain signals = early accumulation, not a bottom signal
MVRV entered “accumulation zone” → undervalued.
Last time this happened (2022), BTC still dropped another ~50%.
👉 Cheap doesn’t mean bottom.
5) 43% of BTC supply is at a loss
This causes capitulation pressure.
Strong hands buy, weak hands sell.
🧩 The Big Insight (What Most Traders Miss)
👉 Markets bottom when fear is exhausted, not when fear appears.
Right now:
Retail still believes
Long-term holders still in profit
Macro not fully broken
➡️ That means this feels like mid-cycle pain, not final bottom.
⚠️ Analyst’s Bias
This feels more like mid-2022 psychology than a final bottom.
Real bottom likely when:
Long-term holders go underwater
Retail gives up
NUPL turns negative
🧠 Simple Translation
We are scared, but not broken enough yet.
And bottoms usually happen when everyone is completely broken.
