March token unlocks of $6B is not calendar trivia, it is a liquidity test. At the first sign of fresh supply appearing at a higher rate than real bids, price becomes the clearing mechanism: spreads relax, depth disappears and charts slide through previously solid levels which seemed secure in quieter weeks.

The majority of people pay attention to the unlock number of the headline. The truer question is, how many of that unlock is floated on the margin as sellable float, and to whom is it floated? Same dollar amount may result entirely differently when it falls into the hands of insiders/early investors (low cost basis, higher sell elasticity), treasuries (policy-driven), or ecosystem incentives (often distributed + sold to fund operations).

My fundamental belief: unlocks do not leave a token on the ground by themselves but they increase the demand price. When the demand fails to grow the only way way out is down or horizontal.

As per your note, confirmed: March unlocks are, approximately, $6B, or about three times the monthly average. Inferred (conditional): when you observe the increase of wallet-to-exchange migration into the unlock window and the spot depth remains thin, then it is more likely that there will be the occurrence of an air-pocket move; when distribution remains largely off-exchange and liquidity becomes enhanced, the market will be able to absorb it with a less destructive effect.

This trade is timing risk: it is either priced early, or the actual move occurs days later, when liquidity is the lowest.

What I will observe: treasury/vesting wallets being delivered to known exchange deposits addresses, net change in circulating supply vs daily volume, 1-2% depth on the order-book and refill rate, 1-4 day post unlock performance relative to $BTC , and concentration change, and 7-14 day post unlock performance relative to BTC.