Bitcoin is heading into a macro-heavy holiday week with price hovering near the $68,600 zone, a level that reflects both resilience and uncertainty after months of volatility. Even though US markets observe Presidents’ Day with reduced liquidity at the start of the week, crypto trades continuously — meaning macro surprises can trigger outsized reactions when participation is thinner than usual.
After a turbulent start to the year and a large retracement from 2025 highs, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to expectations around inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy. Traders are closely watching four US economic releases that could shape liquidity expectations and short-term risk appetite.
Here’s what markets are focused on — and why it matters for crypto.
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FOMC Meeting Minutes — Reading the Fed’s Tone
The release of January’s FOMC minutes will offer deeper insight into how policymakers are balancing inflation risks against economic growth. While rates were left unchanged at the last meeting, the tone of internal discussion often carries more market impact than the decision itself.
If the minutes emphasize persistent inflation pressures or a strong labor market, traders may interpret this as justification for maintaining tighter policy longer. Historically, hawkish signals tend to strengthen bond yields and temporarily pressure risk assets, including Bitcoin.
A more cautious or growth-sensitive tone, however, could revive expectations for eventual easing. In crypto markets, softer policy expectations often translate into improved sentiment and renewed buying interest.
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Initial Jobless Claims — Labor Market Health Check
Weekly jobless claims provide one of the fastest snapshots of US labor market conditions. A resilient employment environment reduces urgency for rate cuts, while signs of cooling can reshape policy expectations.
Lower-than-expected claims would reinforce the narrative of economic strength, potentially limiting near-term liquidity optimism. Conversely, an upside surprise in claims could increase speculation that tighter conditions are weighing on growth — a scenario that sometimes boosts risk appetite if traders anticipate future accommodation.
For Bitcoin, labor data influences the broader liquidity narrative more than the number itself.
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Q4 GDP Revision — Growth Momentum in Focus
The final revision to fourth-quarter GDP helps clarify the trajectory of US economic expansion. Growth data matters because it informs how restrictive policy needs to remain.
A softer reading could support the argument that economic momentum is slowing, encouraging speculation about more supportive financial conditions ahead. Stronger growth, on the other hand, may reinforce the idea of prolonged policy restraint.
Crypto markets often react not to growth strength alone, but to how that strength shifts expectations around liquidity and capital flows.
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PCE Inflation — The Fed’s Preferred Gauge
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is the centerpiece of the week. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, it plays a critical role in shaping policy expectations.
Cooling inflation signals can improve confidence that price pressures are stabilizing, which historically supports risk-on positioning. Hotter-than-expected data may revive concerns about persistent inflation, tightening financial conditions, and short-term volatility across speculative assets.
For Bitcoin, inflation data acts as a catalyst for repricing liquidity expectations — a key driver of momentum in crypto cycles.
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Macro Sensitivity and Holiday Liquidity
With US participation lighter early in the week, even moderate surprises could amplify price swings. Bitcoin’s current positioning reflects a market balancing growth resilience against inflation uncertainty. Each data release has the potential to shift expectations around monetary policy, which remains a dominant narrative for digital assets.
Rather than guaranteeing direction, these macro catalysts highlight how tightly crypto markets remain linked to global liquidity conditions.
What’s your outlook — will macro data fuel volatility or stabilize sentiment this week? Share your view below 👇
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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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