BTC Strategy: The "Ghost of 2018" or a Healthy Reset?
$BTC is staring down its 5th consecutive red month, a bearish streak not seen since the 2018 winter. While Michael Burry screams "death spiral," the on-chain data suggests a massive deleveraging event that is cleaning the slate for a Q2 recovery.
Trend Analysis: The Battle for $65,000
The market is currently haunted by a 24% YTD drop, with BTC sliding from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 to the current $68,000 range. This 45%+ correction has triggered the "death spiral" narrative, fueled by fears that corporate treasuries and miners are reaching a breaking point.
However, looking under the hood, this isn't a structural collapse—it’s a volatility flush.
-> The 2018 Echo: In 2018, $BTC fell 49% in Q1. Currently, we are down roughly 24% YTD. The velocity is historic, but the drawdown is shallower.
-> The Leverage Washout: Futures open interest has plummeted from $90B to $49B. We’ve shed nearly 50% of speculative foam without price breaking the critical $60k–$65k support zone.
-> Institutional Iron Hands: Despite the carnage, Spot ETF outflows have been measured. Large allocators are "scaling into weakness," treating this as a macro reset rather than a terminal exit.
The "Smart Money" is eyeing Friday’s Supreme Court tariff ruling as the final binary catalyst. If support holds, the "Ghost of 2018" may actually be the precursor to a 2026 spring breakout.
Risk Warning
Bitcoin remains highly correlated with AI tech stocks. A breakdown below $60,000 could invalidate the reset thesis, potentially triggering forced liquidations toward $55,000. Trade with strict stop-losses.
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