$BTC Weekly Analysis
The weekly structure has shifted. On the current chart of Bitcoin, the 20-week moving average has crossed below the 50-week moving average. The last time this signal appeared was in 2022, just before the market transitioned from distribution into a deeper corrective phase. That crossover did not immediately mark a bottom — it marked structural deterioration.
Following that signal in the prior cycle, Bitcoin printed nine consecutive red weekly candles. That sequence reflected persistent sell-side pressure rather than isolated volatility. In the current cycle, the market has not printed more than four consecutive red weekly candles. That statistical difference makes the present moment technically important. If this week closes red, it increases the probability that the market is shifting from pullback behavior into trend continuation to the downside.
Price has already lost the $75K weekly support zone. That level previously acted as structural acceptance. Losing it shifts the auction lower and opens the path toward the $60K region, which aligns with longer-term demand and prior consolidation areas. Until that level is tested or reclaimed territory is established above prior support, the burden of proof remains on buyers.
From here, the structure is clean.
A weekly reclaim of $75K would signal early stabilization and suggest that the breakdown may have been a liquidity event rather than a trend transition. A sustained move above $80K would invalidate immediate weakness and reopen the path toward the $100K psychological level. However, continued trading below the key weekly moving averages keeps directional risk tilted downward.
The crossover itself is not predictive in isolation. It is confirmatory. What matters now is weekly closing behavior, momentum persistence, and whether higher timeframe buyers step in before the market tests deeper liquidity.
