Whenever a market is stabilizing following a punishing drawdown, the biggest danger is not to catch the very bottom. It is purchasing the wrong exposure when liquidity is weak yet it is shaken off when the next volatility spike comes.

The question that is useful is not whether it is $BTC or $ETH to the bottom. It is whether I am putting myself in a better survival position by being more downside, or beta should the uptrend be actual. The thesis is not complex: close to the possible bottoms, BTC will be the superior base asset, and ETH will be the superior add-on only after the conditions that will indicate the presence of risk appetite are met.

The pattern that I see in most bottoming efforts is the same: volatility contracts, selling impulses decline, and long term holders cease to give away. That is no evidence of a turn about. It is also an indication that the forced selling phase might be coming of age.

BTC is inclined to act as the reserve of the space. It tends to be the initial defensive rotation, and institutional demand and tends to cause trend changes. ETH is more like growth beta. It can perform better in future but also would perform poorly in tight liquidity condition as it is more susceptible to risk sentiment and positioning.

It is a trade-off between the two. In case of the market tearing off, ETH can outperform BTC. In case the market crashes down, ETH tends to penalize you more.

Given a choice of framing a process, BTC would be sized as the core where I have high uncertainty, and ETH would be added only where the tape ceases to act like a correction. Signals I would monitor: BTC dominance leveling off and rolling over, ETHBTC trend recovering major moving averages, spot volumes increasing on green weeks, funding remaining neutral and price grinding higher, open interest that is steadily accumulating without liquidation spikes and stablecoin reserves beginning to put money to risk.