#bitcoin
📉 Bitcoin near the “buyout zone”: Plan or trap?
$BTC is currently trading around $68,000, and the “Forward returns by drawdown” chart is going viral again online. The bottom line is simple: buying at a 50% drop historically gives a 90% chance of success in a year with an average return of 125%.
📍 Key figures (from the peak of $126k):
• -50%: $63,000 (we are very close).
• -60%: $50,000.
• -70%: $38,000.
Why is “this time different”?
We are no longer in 2016 or 2020. The market has become mature and complex:
1. ETF factor: 1.26 million BTC are in the hands of funds. This creates both support and pressure. We have seen an outflow (~55k BTC) in the last 30 days, which makes the price “heavy”.
2. Macroeconomics: The Fed rate (3.50–3.75%) and US inflation (2.4%) are now directly affecting the crypto due to risk appetite.
3. Psychology: The $63k level looks like a “promise”, but the history of iShares reminds us: recovery after large drawdowns sometimes takes up to 3 years.
🛠 Strategy: How not to get burned by emotions?
Instead of trying to perfectly guess the “bottom” (which is almost impossible for a human), it is worth paying Strategic DCA:
• Buy every day, but allocate a little more cash in reserve.
• If the price touches the “buyout zone” (like the same $63k), use the accumulated reserve for an aggressive entry.
